Lowry’s Status Means Everything For Raptors-Thunder NBA Pick

Wednesday, March 20, 2019 12:58 AM UTC

Wednesday, Mar. 20, 2019 12:58 AM UTC

Kyle Lowry is questionable for the Toronto Raptors this Wednesday when they visit the Oklahoma City Thunder – who should be the right NBA pick if Lowry’s out.

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 19:
20-17-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 29-14 Totals

Toronto (50-21 SU, 31-40 ATS) at Oklahoma City (42-29 SU, 36-35 ATS)

Wednesday, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Free NBA Pick: Thunder if Lowry sits, Under if he plays
Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Dealing with the Toronto Raptors during the regular season used to be easy: Just put them in your NBA picks. Year after year, they made a profit Up North while hardly anyone paid attention. But now that the Raptors are this good, they’re openly treating these regular-season games like exhibition games, throwing lineups at the wall and seeing what might stick for the playoffs.

This might normally make the Oklahoma City Thunder a strong choice for Wednesday’s matchup. Too bad the Thunder are 5-9 SU and 3-11 ATS since the All-Star break. Plus, we don’t have any NBA odds yet for this contest at press time; Kyle Lowry is questionable for Toronto with a sore right ankle, which means we’re going to have to make some contingency plans here at the ranch.

If Kyle Sits, The Thunder Fit

As valuable as Kawhi Leonard (plus-5.1 BPM) and Marc Gasol (plus-2.5 BPM) are to the Raptors, not to mention Pascal Siakam (plus-3.4 BPM) and Danny Green (plus-2.4 BPM) and the Bench Mob, this team belongs to Lowry (plus-3.2 BPM). Without his leadership and his All-Star contributions at point guard, Toronto suffer; they’re 9-5 SU and 5-9 ATS in the 14 games Lowry has missed thus far.

You never know when the Raptors are going to pull a fast one and give Leonard the day off, either. Wednesday isn’t a back-to-back situation for either team, but we’ve seen Leonard ride the pine more and more in these non-consecutive games as the season has worn on. Toronto have already clinched a playoff spot – they’re very likely to finish No. 2 in the Eastern Conference, even if they half-ass it the rest of the way. Head coach Nick Nurse has clearly been reading from the Book of Dilligaf.

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Dwyane Wade on Paul George: pic.twitter.com/necSCXEbO5

— Derek Parker (@DParkOK) 19 de março de 2019
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If Kyle Plays, The ‘Under’ Stays

The ‘under’ hasn’t been quite as good to us lately, but it’s still 10-4 for Oklahoma City since the break, getting a helpful boost from Paul George (plus-5.8 BPM) and his sore right shoulder. George missed three games with his injury, and has shot just 37.8 percent from the floor since his return, down from 44.0 percent on the season.

We’re not super-confident with this play, though. George looked much better during Monday’s 116-107 loss (Over 210) to the Miami Heat, scoring 31 points on 9-of-18 shooting. And the Raptors have the ‘over’ at 39-31-1 this year, including 19-17 at home. Chances are Lowry doesn’t play, so Plan B might not have to be engaged, but if it does, make it a smaller bet than you would for Plan A, and may the sphere be with you.

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