Low-Profile Matchups Provide Value with Bulls-Heat, Pacers-Kings

Charles Stark

Thursday, March 29, 2018 1:38 PM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 29, 2018 1:38 PM UTC

Two games not high on the radar list of most bettors -- Chicago at Miami, and Indiana visiting Sacramento -- are worth a look for your NBA picks. The total is intriguing in both matchups.

Thursday NBA: Top Total Plays Bulls vs. HeatFree NBA Pick: Over 211Best Line offered: Pinnacle

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Chicago beat Miami 119-111 at home in January in a game that finished "over" the 206.5 total on the NBA odds board. For tonight's rematch in Miami the number is a decently high 211. Although Miami just held Cleveland to only 79 points, I will back "over" the total with my NBA picks as I look for both teams to score and get up and down the floor. The key statistic is tempo, which Chicago really likes to push. They average 88.9 attempts per game while allowing 87, which ranks them first and in the bottom third of the NBA, respectively. Although Miami has been a stout defensive team this year, they also have been decent putting up points at times versus lesser defensive teams such as the Bulls. The Heat shoot 36.6 percent from distance and 46.2 percent overall at home. I expect Chicago to score enough to keep up with their tempo, at least enough to get "over" the total.

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Pacers vs. KingsFree NBA Pick: Over 203.5Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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For this Eastern versus Western Conference battle, a really low 203.5 total is on the NBA odds board, but I won’t bite. I will back the "over" with my NBA picks. This total is a little bit surprising to me. Indiana has strong overall numbers and Sacramento is shooting at a solid 38 percent from distance, which ranks them second in the league. Mostly, I believe this low number is due to what oddsmakers would expect to be a decently slow-tempo game, as both teams rank in the top 10 in opponent attempts per game. Still, I think the overall percentages trump this fact and both teams have solid statistics in the home and away disparities. Indiana is shooting a very good 46.7 percent overall and 36.3 percent from distance when they travel. Sacramento's statistics jump quite a bit at home, shooting more than 46 percent in their building. Although defensively both teams have been pretty good their last three games, allowing an average of less than 100 points, don’t expect this game to go that way.

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