Look for Thunder, Bucks to go ‘over’ the NBA Odds

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, November 11, 2014 6:41 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2014 6:41 PM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.


The posted total seems a tad light Tuesday night when the Oklahoma City Thunder (2-5, 0-4 away) pay a visit to the improved Milwaukee Bucks (3-4, 2-1 home) at the Bradley Center in Milwaukee, WI at 8:05 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - Wisconsin.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 190 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -110.

Knocked Off Unbeaten Team
The Bucks actually have a winning 2-1 record here at home in the early going and they come off of a nice 93-92 win over the previously undefeated Memphis Grizzlies here at the Bradley Center on Saturday. Now, normally scoring 93 points and shooting 45.5 percent from the field would not be much to be excited about, but consider that Memphis leads the NBA in scoring defense at 87.6 points per game on 42.8 percent shooting.

The Thunder boast no such defense ranking in the middle of the pack in points allowed at 16th surrendering 98.6 per game. Oklahoma City does come off a game though where it was the winning NBA pick for just the second time this season, a 101-93 home triumph over the surprising Sacramento Kings where the Thunder had five players score in double-figures including Sebastian Telfair and Nick Collison off the bench.

Offense Better with Lamb Back
It is no secret that the Thunder are a depleted team right now with their two superstars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook both out for extended periods with injuries, but one player that has just returned is Jeremy Lamb after missing the first five games of the season with a back injury and he has helped make the offense viable again in support of Reggie Jackson and Serge Ibaka.

Jackson currently leads the club in scoring with 20.0 points per game while starting in place of Westbrook while Ibaka has continued his offensive improvement with 17.1 points per while doing his best to fill in the gap for Durant’s absence, but that new Thunder duo had practically no support until Lamb’s return two games ago.

Lamb has provided an instant offensive upgrade over Perry Jones, who had been starting alongside Jackson in the backcourt, as he has scored exactly 17 points in each of his two games back, and the 101 points scored by Oklahoma City as a team Sunday was just one point shy of its early season high-water mark in a 102-91 win over Denver for its only other win.

Look for the offense to be more consistent now that Lamb is back and already contributing as a starter after being a key piece off the bench last season, as he only figures to get better over the next few games as his back gets closer to “game shape.”

Greek Freak Can Take Advantage
The Bucks finished with the worst record in the NBA last season at a disgusting 15-67, but they did probably boast the rookie with the highest upside of last year’s draft class in Giannis Antetokounmpo, aka the “Greek Freak.” The Freak was very raw last season but his potential was obvious even while he averaged just 6.8 points on 41.4 percent shooting.

Well, his natural development seems to have already begun as he has raised his average to 10.4 points through the early going this year while impressively raising his shooting percentage all the way up to 51.9 percent, and he comes off of a career high 18-point effort vs. the stout Memphis defense with 12 of those points coming in the fourth quarter.

Another sign that the future is bright for Milwaukee is that the Bucks lead the entire NBA in bench scoring right now with 45.4 points per game, with those reserves led by Antetokounmpo and O.J. Mayo. Meanwhile veteran Brandon Knight and second overall draft pick Jabari Parker lead the starters, with Knight leading the club with 17.6 points per game and Parker averaging 11.6 during his rookie campaign.

Good Kidd Thus Far
The Milwaukee youngsters are progressing nicely under Coach Jason Kidd in his first season guiding the Bucks after basically jumping ship on the Brooklyn Nets following a power struggle with ownership after his maiden coaching season last year, and the Bucks can take advantage of the Oklahoma City defense here.

Thus there is reason to believe both offenses are better than the numbers they have posted so far, and that gives sneaky value to the ‘over’ when Oklahoma City visits Milwaukee on Tuesday.

NBA Pick: Thunder, Bucks ‘over’ 190 (-110)

comment here