Lock 'Under' in Mavs-Spurs as Your NBA Pick Despite San Antonio's Dominance

Darin Zank

Wednesday, November 25, 2015 4:07 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2015 4:07 PM GMT

Lone Star state rivals Dallas and San Antonio meet for the first of four times this season Wednesday night. How should we bet this game against the NBA odds?

Mavs-Spurs Betting Odds
Wednesday's NBA odds market opened this game with San Antonio favored by nine points, the total proffered at right around 196; both those numbers were holding steady in the early betting.

 

The Situation
Dallas (9-6 both SU and ATS) recently won six games in a row, but has lost its last two, including a 110-96 decision at Memphis Tuesday night. The Mavs trailed by 10 at the half, by 25 early in the fourth quarter, pulled back to within 10 a couple of times after that but in the end came up short of the cover as four-point dogs.

On the night, Dallas shot just 39 percent from the floor, made just 11 of 34 shots from 3-point land and turned the ball over 19 times.

Sunday the Mavs gave a big effort at Oklahoma City, shooting 53 percent from the floor, but lost 117-114.

Meanwhile, since getting upset last Friday by New Orleans, the Spurs (11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS) have won and covered two straight, including a 98-84 victory over shorthanded Phoenix Monday night. The Spurs led by 10 after a sloppy first half, let the Suns get within seven after three quarters, but pulled away and covered as 10-point favorites.

For the game, San Antonio shot 51 percent from the field, and hit nine of 20 shots from beyond the arc, but also uncharacteristically turned the ball over 21 times, although Phoenix turned it over 28 times.

Saturday the Spurs beat the Grizzlies 92-82, covering at -8.

San Antonio is now 7-0 SU at home this season, 5-2 ATS, winning by 15 points per game.

 

Mavs-Spurs Recent History
These teams split four meetings last season both SU and ATS, the home team winning each game. San Antonio outscored Dallas by a 96-94 per-game margin, and outshot the Mavs over those four games combined by a 45-44 percent margin.

Also, all four of those games played UNDER, averaging just 190 points against an average O/U of 205.

Going back a ways, San Antonio has beaten Dallas nine times in a row at the AT&T Center, by a average of 15 PPG.

 

Mavs-Spurs Totals Trends
Dallas is 8-7 on the OVERS this season, as Mavs games have averaged 203 points.

San Antonio is 9-4 on the UNDERS, as Spurs games have averaged 191 points.

 

Injury Update
San Antonio F LaMarcus Aldridge has missed recent action with a tender ankle, and is questionable for this game.

 

The Picks
The Spurs shoot the ball better than the Mavs, play better defense and do a better job on the boards. We can't help but like San Antonio on the side for our NBA picks. Also, these teams played four UNDERS last season, and we could see this game playing out along similar lines.

Free NBA Picks: Spurs -9 at Heritage and UNDER 196 at 5Dimes

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