Lock 'Over' as the NBA Pick in Lakers vs. Spurs Fast Paced Game

Jordan Sharp

Friday, December 11, 2015 4:28 PM UTC

Friday, Dec. 11, 2015 4:28 PM UTC

While it may not be the prettiest game on tonight’s 11 game slate, the Lakers and Spurs hooking up in San Antonio might present us some nice value in the NBA odds tonight. 

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NBA Pick: Over 194.5
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

Spurs Hitting Their Stride
San Antonio is normally quiet about winning, but with all of the attention on the Warriors, the Spurs are probably both happy that they have the 2nd best record in the league SU, and they have yet to face the Dubs too. However, tonight’s game against the Lakers could be an easy win, and while there is always the possibility of Gregg Popovich sitting some of his veterans tonight, the Spurs could probably still win this game by 20-plus points. However, the spread is so volatile tonight so many different reasons, the total is actually one of my favorite plays of the night.

While they have been quietly running up their record, and Spurs have been scoring the ball very well while doing it. The addition of LaMarcus Aldridge has gone under the radar because of the Warriors and because of the Spurs’ style of play, but that style of play is averaging giving up only 89 points per game this season. However, when they get into a high pace game that’s higher scoring, they can win that way too.

Before their most recent game against the Raptors where they lost, the Spurs were on a four game winning streak, and a three game streak of averaging 110 points per game. That was on an Eastern conference road trip as well. So back at home against the Lakers’ awful defense could be their ticket to cashing the over once again. If it weren’t for their game against the Sixers where Philly only scored 68 points, they would have cashed the over in four straight, and even the Sixers game was close to cashing the over after the Spurs dropped 119.

My point is the Spurs might once again have an offensive night like they did against the Sixers a few nights ago, and if that’s the case this total is way too low. Even if the game is a blow out after a few quarters or is close, there could be a lot of points scored by San Antonio, so as long as LA gets to the 85 point mark, the total still has a shot at the over in this one.


The Sharp Pick
The Lakers have given up nearly 113 points per game to Western Conference opponents this season, and going against Aldridge and Tim Duncan tonight is going to be a superb matchup for the San Antonio bigs. One of them is going to be defended by Larry Nance, and if it’s Aldridge, he could have 20 points by half time.

San Antonio doesn’t play a fast pace at all, and the Lakers are the middle of the pack, so this is a little bit of an off the board play, however, the total has also dropped a bit in the NBA odds, and f the sharps are on the under, all they’ve done is open up value for the over tonight. I see a final score of about 108-89 tonight, so take the over and add it to your NBA picks.

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