Line Movement Makes Mavericks Best NBA Pick vs. Jazz

Nikki Adams

Monday, April 11, 2016 4:00 PM GMT

Monday, Apr. 11, 2016 4:00 PM GMT

Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz collide in Monday’s round of NBA betting. Join us as we preview this game and serve up choice NBA picks for your hoop betting thrills.

Dallas Mavericks (41-39)
The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on the road, a 98-91 defeat that has them slipping to a 41-39 record on the season and snapping a six-game winning streak down the stretch with just two games left on the schedule. As it is, the Mavericks are sat seventh in the Eastern Conference and inside the playoff frame but the season doesn’t end today.

Dallas will be looking to bounce back into winning form at the expense of the Jazz. Home form is better than road form this season with the former standing at 23-17 and the latter at 18-22, but prior to Sunday’s loss to the Clippers the Mavericks won three on the trot on the road. They beat Denver, Detroit and Minnesota.

On the season, the Mavericks are 44-35-1 ATS with a -0.4-point winning margin and a +0.5-point differential versus the spread.  On the road overall, they are 21-18-1 ATS with a -3.3-point winning margin and a -1.6-point differential versus the spread, but as road underdogs they are 16-14-1 ATS with a -5.9-point winning margin. Coming off no rest, they are 10-7-0 ATS with a -1.8-point winning margin and plus 3.8-point differential versus the spread. In Conference games, they’ve amassed a 29-21-0 ATS record with a -0.7-point winning margin and +0.9-point differential versus the spread.

Utah Jazz (40-40)
Only a game win separates the Utah Jazz from the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference standings. The hosts, sat eighth, improved their bid for a spot in the playoffs behind a convincing 100-84 win over Denver. They also improved to a 6-4 record in their last ten, matching Dallas Mavericks on form going into this game.

Seeing as the Denver Nuggets are eliminated from the playoff picture, this matchup is a step above and a much tougher ask with playoff implications on the line. The pair are fighting for playoff spots and seeding. It’s also worth mentioning the Houston Rockets are still in the running and could potentially leapfrog into the frame, thereby bumping one or the other of the aforementioned pair out.

It goes without saying the premium on the win in this game is huge. Utah Jazz are installed as the home favourites on the NBA odds board, a market outlook that is underscored by a relatively positive home record that stands at 24-16 this season. However, it’s worth noting that recent home form hasn’t been much to cheer about – in fact the Jazz have lost three of their last four home games, including back-to-back games ahead of this home date with the Mavericks. That said those losses came to San Antonio and Los Angeles Clippers – a pair of significantly better teams so the degree of difficulty one could argue was higher.

Overall, the Jazz are 41-39-0 ATS on the season with a 2.0-point winning margin and a +1.3-point differential versus the spread. At home, they are 22-18-0 with a 5.9-point winning margin and + 2.6-point differential versus the spread. As home favourites, they are merely 15-14-0 ATS with an 8.4-point winning margin and +2.5-point differential versus the spread. In Conference games, they are 26-24-0 with a 0.6-point winning margin and + 0.3-point differential versus the spread. On no rest, they are 10-7-0 ATS with a 1.9-point winning margin and a plus 3.6-point differential versus the spread.

 

Game Odds and Betting Verdict
Odds makers opened this game with the Utah Jazz as the home favourites to both win and cover. They opened on -230 NBA odds to win straight up and at -5.5-points versus the spread. Those NBA odds were quickly bet up in both markets. Currently, you’ll find the Jazz at a best price of -275 at BetOnline and anywhere from -6.5 to -7 on the spread depending on your choice sportsbook.

To all intents and purposes, there’s something to be said for home advantage and the momentum a win in the previous lap gives a team especially when the stakes are so high and with only two games remaining to decide playoff destinies. Yet, coming off a loss as the Mavericks are can also be a catalyst to bounce back. Indeed, on form, the Mavericks are slightly better with a 6-1 record in their last seven compared to Jazz’ 4-3 SU record. What’s more, the pair split both previous meetings in Dallas 1-1 with the Jazz beating the Mavericks 122-119 in their last encounter and covering as the nominal +1.5-point road underdog.

NBA Betting Verdict: When the NBA line on this game opened at -5.5 the Jazz looked good value for our NBA picks to cover. Now, with it creeping up to 7-points it does seem just a bit more than we’re willing to lay with the hosts. As such, we’re taking the points with the underdogs and backing the Mavericks at +7 (-105) at Heritage in what should be a close playoff-deciding game.  

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NBA Pick:  Mavericks +7 -105
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage

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