Lazy Sunday: Take ‘Under’ For Bucks-Hawks Matinee

Saturday, March 30, 2019 6:39 PM UTC

Saturday, Mar. 30, 2019 6:39 PM UTC

Lunchtime basketball means the ‘under’ is the easy NBA pick for Sunday’s game between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks.

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 29: 22-23-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 32-17 Totals

Milwaukee (57-19 SU, 45-27-4 ATS) at Atlanta (27-49 SU, 38-38 ATS)

Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET

Free NBA Pick: Under

Best Line Offered: Heritage

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If you’ve been betting on basketball for a while, you probably know about the Afternoon Angle – the one where matinee games tend to go ‘under’ the posted total. It’s the reason behind a big chunk of our success here at the ranch this year. But it doesn’t always work out; consider the game from two weeks ago between the Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks, which Philly won 130-125 (Over 230) after each team went ballistic in the fourth quarter.

We’re taking our chances again with the Bucks. This time, they’ll be visiting the Atlanta Hawks, who aren’t usually the kind of team you’d want to take the ‘under’ with at 33-43 on the season. But it is a Sunday afternoon game, and a very early one at that. And both teams have some injury problems that should help our NBA pick get to the pay window.

Shuck-A-Buck

Those injuries are enough of a concern to keep Sunday’s odds from hitting the board as we go to press. The Bucks have five players on the shelf, including Malcolm Brogdon (plus-1.9 OBPM, minus-0.3 DBPM) and Nikola Mirotic (plus-0.7 OBPM, plus-0.3 DBPM), but the most important injured player isn’t even on the list.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (plus-5.6 OBPM, plus-5.2 DBPM) has been dealing with a sore right ankle, and it got worse when he had to leave Thursday’s game against the Los Angeles Clippers with eight minutes left to play. Antetokounmpo says he hates to miss games and wants to play through it, which suits us fine – maybe he won’t score 52 points this time like he did against Philadelphia.

Sunday is also a back-to-back situation for the Bucks; they head north to visit the Brooklyn Nets on Monday. There’s a non-zero chance Antetokounmpo gets held out of Sunday’s game, and if not Giannis, then maybe one of more of his teammates. Fingers crossed.

My Name Is Waller-Prince

The Hawks don’t play Monday, but they do have four injured players, including Taurean Waller-Prince (minus-0.4 OBPM, minus-1.3 DBPM), who’s listed as day-to-day with bilateral foot soreness. Waller-Prince didn’t play Friday against the Portland Trail Blazers; Atlanta lost 118-98 (Under 233). His absence, should it continue, means more minutes on the wing for Kevin Huerter (minus-1.2 OBPM, minus-1.0 DBPM) and the delightful DeAndre’ Bembry (minus-3.6 OBPM, plus-1.2 DBPM).

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Marcus Smart went at DeAndre' Bembry after getting ejected 😮 pic.twitter.com/9Mw765MzGO

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 20, 2019
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Aside from the Afternoon Angle and the injuries, the Hawks have the ‘over’ at 21-17 when they play at home this year, but Milwaukee have the ‘under’ at 21-17 on the road, so that’s a wash. As usual, let’s watch the shoot-around (if there is one before this early game), see what total pops up on the NBA odds board, and may the sphere be with you.

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