Lay Money on the 'Over' for Tonight's Cavaliers vs. Heat NBA Pick

Jordan Sharp

Monday, March 16, 2015 1:55 PM UTC

Monday, Mar. 16, 2015 1:55 PM UTC

Lebron James returns to Miami once again as a member of the Cavaliers, & NBA Odds firmly favor the Cavs as a -3 ½ favorite with a total of 201 ½, so where should we go to find value tonight? 

The Return
The NBA odds spread for this one opened up at -7 ½ in favor of the Cavs, however the news of Kevin Love has sent it down a few points to only -3 ½. The Cavs played last night and took care of the Magic pretty easily, however Love did not play, and looks to be questionable at best for tonight’s game against Miami.

It didn’t matter too much against the Magic last night, JR Smith stepped up and had 25 big points, while James and Kyrie Irving led the way for the Cavs. However the game was not without its downfalls. The Cavs gave up 108 points to a marginal team at best, and now on the second night of a back to back, they have to play a much better team. However the Heat are not without their own injury concerns.

Goran Dragic has been reportedly playing on a bruised tailbone, and even though he says he feels better, it’s going to be tough to run around and chase Irving in this game at anything less than 100%. In the absence of Love, Irving has steppe dup big time for the Cavs offensively, and I’m sure he will do the same tonight.

In their first meeting on Christmas day, the Heat ended up winning the game 101-91. However in their second meeting in Cleveland, the Cavs won the game easily 113-93. However without most everyone for the Heat healthy tonight, who should we back in this one?

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The Sharp Pick
The over is 4-1 in the Cavs last five games as favorites, as well as in four of their last five road games overall. If they continue to play defense like they did against the Magic, then this total of 204 ½ could be a great over play. The Heat have cashed the over in 12 of their last 18 games as well, and in three of their last five games.

The Cavs have cashed the over in their last three games in a row as well, and in five of their last six road games as well. Look for this game to be up and down in pace too, especially because of the Cavs having played last night. Even though they are only 8-10 cashing the over on the second night of a back to back this season, Miami’s defense should give up enough points for the over tonight. Miami has been one of the better defensive teams in the NBA this season when it comes to points allowed. They are ranked 7th in the NBA in points allowed this season, but recently they have been far from good. In their last seven games, the Heat have given up a average of 100 points per game. With the total dropping, there is value being opened up tonight. Take the over tonight and add it to your NBA picks.

My Free NBA Pick: OVER 201.5 at The Greek

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