Lay The Juice On Hawks As NBA Pick For Game 5 vs. Celtics

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, April 26, 2016 4:40 PM GMT

Tuesday, Apr. 26, 2016 4:40 PM GMT

Celtics and Hawks continue Round 1 of their 2016 NBA Playoff series when Game 5 returns to Phillips Arena in Atlanta. Atlanta opened as a 5 point favorite in Game 1 NBA Odds. What will happen?

When Bradley went down, Boston HC Stevens was forced to alter his lineup. He did that successfully by installing Jerebko and Turner into the starting lineup. Jerebko scored 27 points and had 22 boards in the home wins with the intangible advantage of creating space for PG Thomas to attack the basket. The Celtics shot 44% compared to 34% in the first 2 games.

The Boston Celtics and Atlanta Hawks continue Round 1 of their 2016 NBA Playoff series when Game 5 returns to Phillips Arena in Atlanta. Atlanta opened as a 5 point favorite in Game 1.

Despite their victory, this line surged to 6.5 points for Game 2, after Boston’s Bradley was injured in that first game and remains out for this contest. The series is tied at two games apiece, with Atlanta winning by 1 and 7 points on this court, before losing a pair at Boston Garden by 8 and 9 points.

General Overview
The score of that Game 4 loss was a bit misleading, as Atlanta surged to a 17 point 2nd  half lead, before allowing the Celtics to claw their way back and eventually take a lead before the game was decided in OT. The OT session was no contest, as Atlanta was 1 for 9 from the field, and the Celtics pulled away for the 104-95 victory.  

The fact that the home teams have won each of the four games in the series is not surprising, considering that Boston is 30-13 at home for the season, while Atlanta is 29-14.  

An interesting note about the series is that each of the games has gone 'Under' the posted total. It is the only one of the eight series, besides the Golden State/Houston series, which has gone 'Under' the posted total in each game.  

As a side bar, note that there have been 10 'Overs' and 20 'Unders' in the NBA Playoffs this season. The total in this game opened at 200, 4 points lower than the total for Game 1. 

 

Final Analysis
There is a strong historical propensity for home teams in the NBA Playoffs to bounce back after a pair of outright losses. In fact, that situation has cashed nearly 70% of the time against the spread, if the game is in this price range, and the road team is a sub .750 team.

Based on that strong historical precedent, and each team’s home/road dichotomy, let’s look for the home team to get the money in game 5 tonight. Boston has lost all 4 games on this court this season and failed to win any of their last 6 trips to Atlanta. I invite you to put the NBA odds in your favor and join me in my NBA pick on the Atlanta Hawks tonight.

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Free NBA Pick: Atlanta Hawks -7 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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