Fast-Paced Offenses for Lakers and Wolves Could Mean Lots of Points

Sunday, October 28, 2018 6:09 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 28, 2018 6:09 PM UTC

The Timberwolves are a huge mess right now and with the Lakers playing better, you have to like their chances of playing well enough to put up a high score Monday night for your NBA picks.  

<p style="text-align:right"><strong><em>Sharp's NBA season picks record: 2-1</em></strong></p><h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/los-angeles-lakers-vs-minnesota-timberwolves-3569575/odds/" title="Game Odds">Los Angeles Lakers (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) at Minnesota (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS)</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Monday, 8 p.m. ET (NBATV)</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Free Pick: 'Over'</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4423&amp;book=BetOnline" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">BetOnline</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3569575, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,999991,169,93], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>The Lakers have started to play better over their last few games, and they were two LeBron James missed free throws away from potentially winning their last three games. With the Wolves in disarray and potentially missing Andrew Wiggins again on Monday, the Lakers could end up scoring a ton of points. That's one reason to look at the totals market on the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/" title="Live NBA Odds">NBA odds board</a>.</p><p> </p><h2>Fast Offense Leads To Bad Defense</h2><p>Usually we don’t think about a Tom Thibodeau-coached team as bad defensively, but even with Jimmy Butler and some defensive upside, the Wolves have been horrible on that end of the floor so far though six games.</p><p>The Wolves are allowing 115.1 points per 100 possessions, and that ranks 25th heading into Sunday's action. For Monday’s game against the Lakers, that could go even higher with how fast the Lakers have been playing. Not only is L.A. giving up 113.5 points per 100 possessions on defense, but Luke Walton’s team has opened the year playing very fast. The Lakers are averaging 105.6 possessions per game, which ranks third-fastest behind only the Pelicans and Hawks.</p><p>The Wolves also sit just outside the top 10 in pace, which is very unlike the Wolves and Thibodeau. With essentially the same personnel last year, the Wolves ranked 23th in pace at 96 possessions per 48 minutes. If the Lakers can bait the Wolves into continuing to play fast, they will be playing right into LeBron’s hands. As good as Butler is, he has not been putting up much effort on defense during his quest to be traded. That will also play into the scoring potential of this one.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;LeBron James has now scored more points in his career than every other active player in the NBA.&lt;a href=\"https://t.co/M3sxvnvnq8\"&gt;https://t.co/M3sxvnvnq8&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/Lakers/status/1056405979913285633?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;October 28, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><h2>The Sharp Pick</h2><p>Not only have both these teams been giving up points, their opponents have been shooting the ball with great efficiency against them. Both teams have allowed their opponents to post an effective field-goal percentage of 54.2%.</p><p>That ranks them both in the bottom third of the league in that category, and it wouldn’t surprise me if both of them stayed down there throughout the season. They are both in the bottom half of the league in defending the three-point line, and among teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in their opponent’s three-point percentage, the "over" is 48-25-1 in their games to start the season.</p><p>Betting the "over" between two teams that can’t defend the three, play very fast, and generally aren’t very interested in playing defense is a profitable move for your <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/" title="Free NBA Picks">NBA picks</a> Monday night.</p>
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