Lakers vs. Pacers Total to Offer NBA Betting Value

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, February 25, 2014 1:39 PM GMT

Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2014 1:39 PM GMT

The largest spread of this seven game evening in the NBA is by far the Lakers heading into Indianapolis to play the Pacers. The NBA Odds have Indiana as a -13 home favorite, with a total of 202. I think the spread may have some value, but the safer play seems like a wager on the total, which is well above 200 points.

Pacers reloaded

Indiana added a lot for very little right before the trade deadline with Andrew Bynum, but to swing Evan Turner for the expiring contract of Danny “I’m too good to play for the Sixers” Granger was brilliance. Donnie Walsh be praised if you are a Pacers fan, and it looks as if Turner might be ready to suit up for Indiana tonight against LA. If he does play, it will only help their defense against the plethora of wing players for LA. 

So far this season, the Pacers haven’t seen too many totals above 200 points, in fact out of their 55 total games this year, the total has been over 200 only four times. In those four games, the Pacers cashed the under in three of them, and one of them was against these same Lakers in LA back in late January.

The Pacers held LA to only 92 points, and this is same LA team coming into Indy tonight. Gasol was healthy and played well in the matchup just over a month ago, and Steve Blake did not play due to injury, and of course he plays for the Warriors now.

In fact since that game, the Pacers have been solid cashing the under overall. Including their last two games in the month of January, the Pacers have cashed the under at 6-5-1 in their last 12 games. Even if Gasol has another game like he did in their first meeting this season, no one outside of him is talented enough to defend the Pacers on one end, and have enough energy to score the ball on the other.

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The Sharp Pick

Indiana should fix their defensive woes tonight against a team that does not have much offense outside of Pau Gasol. The Pacers should do an excellent job locking down Gasol tonight on the glass, and his presence in the paint will only be a minor roadblock for the Pacers.

I don’t expect the Lakers to have much more than 90 points here, and while I do think they have a shot at covering, I see the under being a safer play. Indiana has cashed the under at home at 18-11 this season, and the Lakers don’t present a big problem for their defense.

Indiana is athletic enough to stay with anything the Lakers have on the perimeter, and even with Swaggy P likely coming back, I think the Lakers will have a tough time scoring the ball. Indiana got a win against the Bucks three nights ago, and they should be well rested coming into tonight. The Pacers are 23-16-2 cashing the under after a SU win this season, considering that, we'll add the under to our NBA picks this evening.

My Pick: UNDER 202

[gameodds]5/256582/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

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