Lakers and Kings to go ‘over’ the Total is Your NBA Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, April 13, 2015 3:58 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

 



A meaningless game in regards to the NBA standings may actually providing nice value Monday night when the Los Angeles Lakers (21-59, 9-31 away) pay a visit to the Sacramento Kings (27-53, 17-23 home) at Sleep Train Arena in Sacramento, CA at 10:05 ET in a game available on Comcast SportsNet - California.

The posted total at Bet365 is 208½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -110.


No Defense Played Here
The Lakers and the Kings have not faced each other since a 108-101 Sacramento win here at home way back in December, but these two also-rans now end the season with a home-and-home series with a rematch in Los Angeles coming up in the regular season finale on Wednesday. And with neither team going anywhere this year, defense has become an afterthought with both teams basically playing schoolyard basketball in recent games.

The Lakers have been the losing NBA picks in six of their last seven games and they are now just trying to avoid losing 60 games this season, which they can do by sweeping these last two meetings. The Kings actually got off to a promising start this season, but then came the surprising firing of Coach Mike Malone early in the year and then the dismissal of interim coach Tyrone Corbin at the All-Star break, but the Kings are just 9-19 under new coach George Karl.


Lakers on 3-0 ‘over’ Run
The Lakers may be averaging just 98.5 points per game this season to rank 17th in the NBA, but they have now topped 100 points in four straight games following a 120-106 loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday. And the defense has been atrocious all season long as Los Angeles is 28th out of 30 NBA teams in points against at 105.1 per game, 29th in field goal percentage allowed at 46.5 percent and 26th in three-point defense at 36.3 percent.

They have now gone ‘over’ in each of their last three games and those contests have all soared ‘over’ rather easily while averaging a combined 216.7 points, which would shatter this posted total by over eight points. You may not recognize the Lakers without a scorecard these days, but all five starters scored in double-figures vs. the Mavericks last night and they had seven double-digit scorers in all with Dwight Buycks and Ed Davis also doing so off the bench.

As for the back-to-back, the Lakers have been even worse in this situation defensively this season allowing a dreadful 106.7 points per game when playing with no rest.


Kings Have Streak of Very High Scoring Games
Not to be outdone, the Kings also come off of a slew of high-scoring games with the ‘over; going 4-1 in their last five games, and that does not tell the whole story. You see, even the lone ‘under’ had a total of 219 points scored in a game with a posted total of 219½ vs. the Thunder in Oklahoma City, leaving Sacramento within one-half point of being on a 5-0 ‘over’ run.

Moreover the last four Sacramento games have averaged a combined total of 218.3 points, which is nearly 10 points higher than this posted total!

It makes sense that the Kings would be a good ‘over’ team as they are actually allowing more points than the Lakers overall, ranking 29th in the league in points against at 105.3 per game while ranking 25th on field goal percentage against at 45.8 percent, while actually being good offensively ranking in the top half of the league in 14th in points scored with 101.1 per game.


Trending ‘over’ Head-to-Head
Finally, these division rivals know each other quite well and have become accustomed to playing high-scoring games against one another, especially here in Sacramento where the ‘over’ is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings.

Look for more of the same in a game with absolutely no playoff implications as we expect another ‘over' when the Los Angeles Lakers visit Sacramento in the first half of a home-and-home series on Monday.

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NBA Pick: Lakers, Kings ‘over’ 208½ (-110)