L.A. Clippers are the NBA Pick vs. Warriors on Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, March 31, 2015 3:29 PM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Tuesday.

 



The two teams with the two current longest winning streaks in the NBA square off Tuesday night but the home team may have the situational advantage when the Golden State Warriors (60-13, 26-11 away) pay a visit to those Los Angeles Clippers (49-25, 27-10 home) at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA at 10:35 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Los Angeles as a modest home favorite for this contest with the current line at -3 with odds of -105.


Two Hottest Teams in the League
The Warriors own the best record in the NBA at 60-13 with those 60 wins being a franchise record, and they have now won nine straight games including the first three in this four-game road trip which ends tonight with the first two coming while visiting playoff teams in the Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers. Then the Warriors officially clinched the top-seed in the Western Conference with their 108-95 win in Milwaukee Saturday.

The Clippers have been almost as hot as Golden State as they have been the winning NBA picks in seven straight games, a streak directly coinciding with the return of Blake Griffin following elbow surgery. For all the heat that Griffin takes about being “soft”, he definitely means a lot to this team not only because of his 21.8 points, 7.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game but also because his presence opens things up for guards Chris Paul and J.J. Redick to play their games.


Time to Rest Some Regulars?
Now, there is no denying that the Warriors have been the best team in basketball this year as besides clinching the one-seed, they hold a seemingly safe five-game lead in the loss column over the Atlanta Hawks for the best record in the NBA after the win over the Bucks. The Warriors are well known for their phrenetic pace and their three-point shooting, and deservedly so as they lead the NBA in both Pace Rating and three-point percentage!

Golden State is the only team in the league averaging over 100 possessions per game (100.6) and it shoots 39.7 percent from three-point land, and it also leads the NBA in field goal percentage overall at 47.8 percent, so it should come as no surprise that the Warriors average a league-best 109.8 points per game. However, do not forget that while they are 14th in points allowed at 98.9 per contest, they actually lead the NBA in defensive efficiency because of their pace.

That underrated defense is what makes the Warriors legitimate NBA title contenders, as this is not just a one-dimensional jump-shooting team like some may believe. With of that said however, this could be a prime opportunity for Golden State tor rest some players, which rookie coach Steve Kerr has been more inclined to do on the road lately than at home.


Two-Seed Suddenly within Range
And while resting players would obviously help the Clippers’ cause, it may not be mandatory for a Los Angeles victory here as even though the Warriors won both meetings between these teams in Oakland this season with the most recent coming while Griffin was still out, the Clippers won the only meeting here at the Staples Center on Christmas night, and pretty easily at that 100-86 while holding the Warriors to 42.2 percent shooting.

Also with this seven-game winning streak, the Clippers suddenly find themselves just one game back in the loss column behind both the Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets for the second seed in the West, so it is entirely possible for the top two seeds to both come from the Pacific Division. And remember that only one non-division winner can be a top-four seed in any conference with the three division winners locked into the other three seeds.

That means that Los Angeles must finish ahead of either Memphis or Houston to gain the home court advantage in the first round, not to mention draw an easier matchup.


Warriors Not Fond of Staples Center
Finally, the Warriors have simply not played well at Staples going 2-6 ATS in their last eight head-to-head meetings with the Clippers here, a streak that got extended in the first meeting this season despite Golden State basically dominating the rest of the league. In fact, as an interesting aside, the Warriors even lost to the lowly Lakers in this building this season!

Add this all up and this looks like a nice situational spot for the Los Angeles Clippers to slide past the team with the league’s best record in Golden State in a special edition of the NBA on TNT Tuesday.

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NBA Pick: Clippers -3 (-105)