Knicks vs. Heat Predictions, Picks & Odds: Will Miami Take Commanding 3-1 Series Lead?

Check out our top predictions for Monday's Knicks vs. Heat playoff matchup based on the best NBA odds.

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: May 8, 2023 1:04 PM EDT • 4 minute read

The Miami Heat have a chance to take a 3-1 series lead over the New York Knicks in Monday's Game 4 showdown. Read on for our Knicks vs. Heat prediction based on the best NBA odds.

The Miami Heat cruised to a 105-86 win over the New York Knicks on Saturday, in which four different players finished in double figures. Miami now has a chance to take a commanding 3-1 series lead before going back to New York.

Oddsmakers expect the Heat to do just that, listing them as 4.5-point favorites ahead of Game 4. But we are dialed in on the player prop market to find the best value play for the latest Knicks-Heat matchup.

Here is our best Knicks vs. Heat prediction (odds via Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Knicks vs. Heat prediction

Quentin Grimes Over 1.5 3-pointers (-129 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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The deeper we get into the NBA Playoffs, the sharper these lines tend to get. The onus is on bettors to try and figure out if there are edges through certain matchups or expanded roles. In this case, we are betting on the latter.

With Immanuel Quickley listed as doubtful with an ankle injury, Grimes should get a chance to see the floor a bit more in Game 4. This is evident by his points prop being set at 7.5 after being listed at 4.5 in Saturday's Game 3.

Grimes did score eight points in 22 minutes last time out, but rather than touch his inflated scoring line, we are betting on the Knicks guard to knock down multiple 3-pointers. Grimes has yet to hit multiple 3-pointers in the postseason, but the volume is there.

This postseason, Grimes is 7-of-24 from the floor with 18 of those attempts coming from long range. Grimes has only connected on three triples in the playoffs, good for a 16.7% shooting clip from beyond the arc. That's obviously below what he is capable of as a 3-point shooter.

During the regular season, Grimes was a 38.6% 3-point shooter and made 2.2 triples on 5.7 attempts per contest. More importantly, 67% of Grimes' field-goal attempts came from long range during the 2022-23 regular season.

With this line being as low as 1.5, we like the idea of betting on a player who wants to get a majority of his shots from long range. If Grimes does get a bump in minutes, we are counting on him to take more than four 3-point attempts for the first time all postseason.

It doesn't hurt that today is Grimes' birthday, either.

Knicks vs. Heat best odds

Caesars (-129)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	PointsBet
Over 1.5 3PM	N/A	Over 1.5 3PM	Over 1.5 3PM	N/A
-130	N/A	-135	-129	N/A

Only three of our best sportsbooks have set a line for Grimes for Game 4, but it is telling that all three of them have juiced this line toward the Over. Caesars offers the best discount with its -129 price, though this prop is playable at anything -135 or better.

This is more of a minutes play, as we expect Grimes to have an expanded role. That means there are other ways to play a similar angle, with his points prop being set at 7.5 (Over -125) at DraftKings.

We simply prefer playing the 3-point line, as Grimes will take a majority of his shots from long range.

Knicks vs. Heat odds

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Knicks vs. Heat odds analysis

The spread hasn't budged at our best NBA betting sites, with the Heat remaining as 4.5-point favorites since open. The total has climbed up to 207.5 after starting at 206 at all the best sports betting sites.

So far in this series, Miami has covered in all three games and the Under has hit on two different occasions.

Knicks vs. Heat game info

Date: Monday, May 8, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Knicks-Heat pick made 05/08/2023 at 12:25 p.m. ET.

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Written by:
Shane Jackson

Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.