Knicks and Heat to sneak ‘over’ is the NBA Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, February 9, 2015 5:24 PM GMT

Monday, Feb. 9, 2015 5:24 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

 



There could be a higher scoring game than the low posted total suggests Monday night when the New York Knicks (10-41, 3-21 away) pay a visit to the Miami Heat (21-29, 8-15 home) at American Airlines Arena at Miami, FL at 7:35 ET in a game available on MSG.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 182½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -104.


Can Two of Three Lowest Scoring Team go ‘over’?
Granted, these are two of the three lowest scoring teams in the NBA. The Knicks are 28th in the league in scoring with 92.7 points per game and they enter this contest on a three-game losing streak that leaves them at 10-41 overall, which is the worst record in basketball with New York now being the only team in the league with a winning percentage below .200 (.196), thanks to the Minnesota Timberwolves winning their last three games.

The Heat are 29th in the league with their 92.4 points per contest, and like the Knicks Miami has also been the losing NBA pick in three straight games. Thus, at 21-29 overall, the Heat already have more losses that they did all of last season when they finished 54-28, although obviously that was when LeBron James was still in town.


Return of Carmelo and Shoddy Defense Helps
The Knicks should get a scoring boost tonight with Carmelo Anthony expected to come back after resting his ailing knee in the second game of a back-to-back in a 106-92 home loss to the Golden State Warriors on Saturday. Anthony was the NBA scoring champion two seasons ago and he finished second to Kevin Durant last season, and he is still averaging 24.1 points this year on the occasions he has made it onto the court, which has been for 39 games.

Of course Anthony’s presence usually means more scoring for both teams since he is a defensive liability, and the Knicks have become accustomed to lax defense this season surrendering 100.3 points per game while ranking 24th in the league in field goal percentage allowed at 46.0 percent and dead last in three-point defense at 38.7 percent.

Thus the average combined score of all New York games this year has been 193.0 points, which is more than 10 points higher than this posted total.


Miami Games Also Averaging More than This Total
The Heat are remarkably second in the NBA in points against at 96.3 per game, but notice that the average combined score for all of their games is 188.7 points, which while low by most standards is actually about five points higher than this posted total. Furthermore the Miami defense has not been nearly as good as those points against may suggest.

You see, the Heat are 21st in the NBA in field goal percentage allowed at 45.6 percent and 24th in three-point defense at 36.2 percent, with a by-product being ranking just 19th in defensive efficiency surrendering 104.5 points per 100 possessions. Incidentally the Knicks are 28th in that category surrendering 107.6 points per 100 possessions, with only the Lakers and Timberwolves grading out worse, so those efficiency ratings may give more hidden value to the ‘over’ here.


Trending ‘over’ in South Beach
Finally, keep in mind that the ‘over’ is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings between these teams in Miami with those games averaging a combined 196.1 points.

Add this all up and the ‘over’ could be a nice play at a seemingly deflated number when the New York Knicks visit Miami on Monday.

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NBA Pick: Knicks, Heat ‘over’ 182½ (-104)

 

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