Knicks to Cover Short Number in Milwaukee Tonight

Megan Rochester

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 11:03 PM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2014 11:03 PM GMT

The New York Knicks visit the Milwaukee Bucks tonight, and while the NBA odds are only offering the home team as small three point favoirtes, we are predicting that Melo and Co. will find a way to cover the short line tonight.

Knick the Favorites to the Curb: Go with Dogs to Cover ATS on the Road

New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
BMO Harris Bradley Center
8:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks vs. New York Knicks – on the surface this looks like it is going to be a close game, folks. The kind that makes your palms sweaty from start to finish. These two teams are a match made in heaven. I was looking at some trends from both teams thus far in the season. Are you ready for this?

- Both teams are coming off a day’s rest
- Both teams won their Sunday Night matchups
- Both teams are entering the first game of a back-to-back series
- Both teams lost to the Detroit Pistons 98-85
- Both teams lost to the Washington Wizards in double digits
- Both teams have 4 players that on-average score in double digits per game
- Both teams’ top man on the boards rebounds an average of 7.7 RPG (Larry Sanders for the
   Bucks and Amar’e Stoudemire for the Knicks)

Sportsbooks made their first mistake when they released tonight's opening lines. The first NBA odds to hit the market posted the Bucks as a 5.5 favorite. However, five hours after the opening odds were released, the point spread closed up 2.5 points in every sportsbook, now leaving us with a 3 point spread.

So, who will give us another ‘W’ win against the spread and money in our pockets? I’m adding the Knicks to my NBA picks tonight, as I expect them to keep things close and possibly pull off the win on the road.

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Away Team has Home Court Advantage

The Knicks haven’t won on the road so far in November, however, even though New York doesn’t pull out the ‘W’ on the road very often, they do seem to cover the spread. The Knicks have covered in their last two road games, and tonight's matchup should make it their third.

Home court advantage won’t be much of an asset for the Bucks this evening, as they shoot an average of 2.5 less points when they play at home (89.3), while the Knicks actually average 2.4 total points more when they play away.

Get another cappers' take on the Knicks vs. Bucks Total

Knicks are Clicking
Melo found his stride on Sunday against the Nuggets shooting 71%, hitting 2-3 three point bombs, and finishing off with a stat line of28 points,  9 rebounds and 3 assists. I think that was the first time I’ve seen Carmelo smiling since he beat LeBron and the Cavs for their season opening game.

Iman Shumpert didn’t touch the floor against Denver on Sunday, and may not been out there tonight due to his hip injury. I have a feeling we won’t know about that until moments before tip-off, but after the Knicks performed on Sunday without him, I’m not losing any confidence. The Knicks have a powerhouse roster.  J.R. Smith not only stepped in for Shumpert but stepped up for his team, too. He matched Melo with 28 points and also had 4 rebounds and 4 assists.

The Knicks finally broke the 100 point mark on Sunday scoring 109 points against Denver, and the Bucks have yet to do since their season opener against Charlotte. I think we will see that kind of effort from New York again tonight. Seeing the Knicks click and break 100 may be a bigger factor than most realize. Since the start of the season people have questioned if the players could get theirs in the triangle offense system.  The Bucks have yet to break 100 since their season opener against Charlotte.

 

The Differential
Milwaukee is a team you can depend on … depend on to test the best offense you’ve got because they will make you work for your shot the entire game, minute for minute, no, second for second. The Bucks have allowed the forth fewest points in the league at 92.6 per game. The Bucks average just under 50 rebounds per game at home, and the Knicks average just over 41 RPG on the road.

That being said, the Bucks’ offense is a wreck.  Milwaukee is the third worst offensive team in the league at 91.8 points per game as posted by Sportsbook Review, and as I stated before, they’ve shown us that they play worse at home. They are ranked 28th for PPG, 19th for free throw percentage (.438), three-point percentage of .296….. You get the picture.

What we are going to see here is excellent defense from the Bucks, but they are not going to be able to put up enough points to cover the spread against the Knicks who may have finally found their offensive stride. I’m going with the underdogs in this one to cover a three point spread. 

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