Kings vs. Clippers: 'Over' Is The Value Play For Your NBA Picks

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, January 16, 2016 7:00 PM GMT

Saturday, Jan. 16, 2016 7:00 PM GMT

Some late breaking NBA Odds between the Clippers and Kings could be one of the better games on the slate this evening, as the NBA Odds have the Clippers as -5.5 favorites, with a total of 216 points.

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NBA Pick: Over 215.5
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle  

 

Late Break For DJ and Blake
Before the NBA odds came out for this one, it looked as if there was a chance that Blake Griffin could have played, but now it seems as if he is only inching closer to a return from his quad injury. The bigger reason the NBA odds were late coming out for this one is the status of DeAndre Jordan, who had to break his 360 consecutive game streak after coming down with a serious illness two nights ago.

Jordan is still questionable for tonight’s game, and if he cannot go, the Clippers are going to have a very hard time trying to stop DeMarcus Cousins. Cole Aldrich will have to draw the start if Jordan cannot play again, and while he played well in his spot start for Jordan two nights ago, Cousins will likely feast tonight against the inexperienced young center.

However, does that necessarily mean the Clippers are an automatic fade tonight at home? LA has been playing very well without Griffin in the lineup for the last ten games or so, but potentially being without their stalwart in the middle in Jordan tonight could lead to a much higher scoring contest. While they played well defensively against the Heat the other night without Jordan, the Heat have had a lot of problems scoring on the road this season.

Tonight against Sacramento the biggest problem for the Clippers other than stopping Cousins will be keeping up the pace with the Kings. While the Kings have been pretty horrible on defense this season, a big reason for that has been their pace of play. If the Clippers are without Jordan tonight along with Griffin, their bench might be pretty short and therefore might give up some more points if they get tired quickly. With a total of 215.5, this is by far the highest total of the night, however, it also might have a pretty good chance to go over as well.

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The Sharp Pick
These two teams met twice really early in the season back in the end of October, but they have not played one another since. However, in the first two meetings the total went way over, and in their last five games against one another the total went over as well.

On top of that, the total has gone over in six of the last seven games for the Kings, and four of their last five games on the road. Sacramento has the worst team defense of any road team this season, giving up 110 points per game away from home, and in their last ten games overall they have been even worse giving up 112 points per game. While the Clippers have been very good on defense as of late, their scoring has also been very good over the last ten games, as they are averaging over 108 points per game.

However, against teams in their division, the Clippers are giving up an average of 106 points per game, and against the fast-paced Kings, they may end up giving up close to that amount of points tonight. I could see a final score where both teams score well into the 100s and even both teams above 110 points tonight is a possibility. If Jordan misses, the Clippers’ will likely struggle on defense even more tonight, so if he can’t play once again, the over is by far the best play for your NBA picks for this game.

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