Key Injury Prompts Another Over Pick in Suns-Bucks Rematch

Suns Bucks NBA

Jordan Sharp

Monday, January 22, 2018 5:42 PM GMT

Monday, Jan. 22, 2018 5:42 PM GMT

Earlier this season the Bucks won SU and ATS at Phoenix, 113-107 -- a winning ticket for over bettors. With Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo out for Monday's rematch, is the under the wise choice for your NBA picks?

Monday NBA: Suns vs. Bucks

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Free NBA Pick: Over 212½Best Line Offered: BetOnline

Without their best player on the court this season, the Bucks have struggled offensively. According to Basketball Reference, with Giannis Antetokounmpo off the court this season the Bucks own a 103.6 offensive rating, compared to 111.8 when he plays.

On the flip side, though, their defense also gets a lot worse without the Greek Freak. Teams are scoring 8.2 more points per 100 possessions with Antetokounmpo out of the game, and that’s going to play tonight against a potent Phoenix offense.

Devin Booker and T.J. Warren are going to get their points, and the Suns’ bench has a few firecrackers that can get hot in a hurry. Without their top player on both ends, the Bucks could struggle defensively.

The Bucks are already not good defending the paint, so the Suns’ big men should be able to win the rebounding battle down low. However, the Suns are allowing 112.3 points per game on the road this season, so despite the fact the Bucks’ offense has been slowing down some, even without their best player, the home matchup against a bad defense is enough to warrant an over play at the current total on the NBA odds board.

The Bucks have cashed the over at 12-7-1 in their last 20 games, and the Suns are 12-6 cashing the over this season against the Eastern Conference. So in my NBA picks it makes sense to go with the over in this spot.

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