Jump On The ‘Under’ For Celtics-Lakers Fiasco

Friday, March 8, 2019 9:03 PM UTC

Friday, Mar. 8, 2019 9:03 PM UTC

These are tough times for the Boston Celtics – but even worse for the L.A. Lakers. They’ll make the ‘under’ a tasty NBA pick this Saturday night.

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 7: 18-16-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 23-10 Totals

Boston (40-26 SU, 33-32-1 ATS) vs L.A. Lakers (30-35 SU, 26-37-2 ATS)

Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Free NBA Pick: Under

Best Line Offered: Heritage

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This isn’t the way LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers wanted things to turn out – especially not with the Boston Celtics coming to town on Saturday, on prime-time TV across the nation. The Lakers have completely fallen apart, losing six of their last seven games SU and ATS; they have less than a 1-percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight. See you next year.

Not that the Celtics are singing “Kum Ba Yah” right now. They’ve managed to put together back-to-back wins to start their Western road trip, but that still leaves Boston at 3-5 SU and 3-4-1 ATS since the All-Star break. So once again, let’s forget the spread for Friday’s game and put the ‘under’ in our NBA picks. It’s on a six-game roll for the Celtics, and 6-3 for the Lakers since February 12. Want some? Come get some.

The 142nd Fastest Gun In The East

Once again, we’re stuck without any NBA odds as we go to press, but that’s probably because Kyrie Irving (plus-6.1 OBPM, plus-0.4 DBPM) is day-to-day with a left thigh contusion. He didn’t play Wednesday in Sacramento; the C’s narrowly won that game 111-109 (Under 226) as 2-point road faves. Less Irving means more Terry Rozier (minus-1.0 OBPM, plus-0.8 DBPM), which suits us just fine.

The Lakers have four players listed as day-to-day:

Lonzo Ball (minus-0.9 OBPM, plus-1.4 DBPM)
Kyle Kuzma (minus-0.1 OBPM, minus-1.4 DBPM)
Brandon Ingram (minus-2.2 OBPM, minus-0.7 DBPM)
Tyson Chandler (minus-2.6 OBPM, plus-1.9 DBPM)

Of these players, Ball (ankle) and Chandler (neck) are least likely to play Saturday, which doesn’t help us much statistically. However, without Ball in the lineup dishing his 6.5 assists per 36 minutes, the Lakers offense has no flow to it. And the newswires are buzzing about James (plus-6.0 OBPM, plus-1.8 DBPM), who will reportedly have his minutes “managed” for the rest of the regular season.

Punting In L.A.

Now it’s up to the oddsmakers to give us a total we can live with. Lakers supporters have traditionally failed to evaluate their team properly; we can count on the Purple and Gold public to hammer both the Lakers and the ‘over’ on the regular, as long as a transcendent player like King James is holding court.

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Chuck's got an invitation for LeBron... 😂 pic.twitter.com/F5n8XURFEv

— NBA on TNT (@NBAonTNT) March 8, 2019
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There have been some pretty big totals on the board, too. Each of the last five L.A. games has seen a total greater than 230 points, with a high of 240. It might not get that high this Saturday with the defensively-stout Celtics in town, but as long as the market is slow to recognize how poor the Lakers offense is, there should be a profit margin waiting for us.

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