Jazz vs. Heat: NBA Picks and Predictions

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Jazz vs. Heat: NBA Picks and Predictions
Bam Adebayo #13 and Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images/AFP

The Heat have started to turn things around lately winning four straight games, but they have one of their tougher opponents lined up on Friday with the Jazz coming to town. Can we find a winning wager at the best betting sites for this one with both teams coming in on winning streaks?

Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat

Friday, February 26, 2021 – 08:00 PM EST at AA Arena

Bam Adebayo Questionable

The big injury news for this one revolves around the Heat, and it could have big ramifications on the NBA Odds for this one. Bam Adebayo is listed as questionable with a sore knee, and while he should be able to play through it, there is always a chance the Heat give their franchise big man a night off here.

If Adebayo can’t play, the Heat will have some big holes on both ends of the court. Not only will they have limited options against Rudy Gobert, but they will also lose a big portion of their offense too.

When Adebayo is off the court this season the Heat hasn't lost a ton on defense. However, they do lose about five points per 100 possessions on offense, which might be just enough to give the Jazz a win and cover here if the big man can’t play.

On top of Adebayo’s injury, the Heat may also be without Tyler Herro again. Herro has missed the Heat’s last two games with a hip bruise, and while coach Eric Spoelstra said Herro was feeling better, we’ll need more info from shootaround before we know if Herro can make his return tonight.

The Sharp Pick

While the Heat can make up for the loss of Herro if he misses his third straight, they will have a hard time making up for the loss of Adebayo if he sits. That being said, while that injury makes it tough to bet the spread in this one, the total should have some value still. Adebayo playing will definitely help our play, but it won’t be killed if he sits. In fact, it could help us if it hurts the Heat defense.

The Heat have been playing very good defense over their last five games, especially in the first halves. But four of those five games have been against some pretty average-to-bad teams. The Jazz's offense is miles ahead of any of the Heat’s last five opponents minus the Lakers, so don’t be surprised if the Jazz dice up the Heat's defense, even on the road.

Mitchell of the Jazz
Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Utah Jazz against the LA Lakers. Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images/AFP

That's why I’m banking on a high-scoring first half. The Jazz averages 115.1 points per 100 possessions in the first half this season, and the Heat is allowing 112.4 points per 100 possessions in the first halves of their home games. While the pace of the first half may be a little slower, I can still see both teams approaching the 55-point mark on the first half, even with the Heat’s injuries. Their first meeting a few weeks ago was very low scoring, but it was mostly due to the extremely poor shooting from both sides. I can’t see that happening again.

Now that they have faced one another, they may have a better idea of how to score on each other. While the full game total has dropped some, the first half number is way less than half the full game number still, which to me screams value. We could definitely see a lower scoring second half, but at least for the first two quarters, I like the over.

Free NBA Pick: 1st Half Over 106 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

1H Over 106(-115)
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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.