Increase Your Profit With This Two-Pick Parlay for Tonight's Pacers vs. Bucks

Darin Zank

Thursday, March 26, 2015 12:36 PM GMT

The Association offers just one game to play with Thursday night, but that just gives a chance to focus and create a two-pick parlay for our NBA Plays of the Day.

Two teams, division rivals, who both came up with much-needed victories their last times out, meet when the Bucks tangle with the Pacers Thursday night at the Bradley Center.

 

Game Set-Up
Indiana struggled through the first part of this season playing without the injured Paul George, then found a rhythm and won 13 of 15 games and for a moment owned the eight spot in the Eastern Conference standings. But the Pacers then lost six games in a row, giving away a lot of the ground they had just made up.

But Indiana picked up a much-needed victory Wednesday night, rallying from 10 points down in the fourth quarter to beat Washington 103-101 on a George Hill basket with three seconds left.

On the other side of this match-up Milwaukee won 15 games last season, then brought in Jason Kidd to run the show. Who among us thought the Bucks might make the playoffs? Crickets, right? But the NBA is no stranger to quick turnarounds, and that's what Milwaukee has pulled off, regardless of its recent slump, already doubling its win total from last season.

Not too long ago the Bucks almost had a chance to win the Central Division; then they lost 13 of 16, in the wake of the trade that sent leading scorer Brandon Knight to Phoenix.

But in desperate need of a victory Tuesday night the Bucks rallied from 14 points down in the fourth quarter against Miami, and won it 89-88 on a 3-pointer from Khris Middleton at the buzzer.

Still, Milwaukee is now 5-13 SU, 6-11-1 ATS since that big trade. Also, the Bucks are 8-10 on the totals during that span.

So big-picture, at 35-36 the Bucks own the six spot in the East, two games ahead of seventh-place Miami, while Indiana, at 31-40, is tied with Boston for the eight-nine spots.

Indiana owns the recent rivalry with Milwaukee, winning eight of the last nine meetings straight-up, going 5-4 ATS. The Pacers have also already taken two of three games from Milwaukee this season. The Bucks took the first meeting way back in November in Indianapolis 97-91; the Pacers then won in Milwaukee back in January 94-91; and two weeks ago Indiana won in overtime at the Fieldhouse 109-103,

The Pacers shot 44 percent from the floor combined in those three games, holding the Bucks to 42 percent FG shooting.

Statistically speaking, Indiana owns a couple of edges on the Bucks. The Pacers rank seventh in the league in rebounding at +1.8 per game, while Milwaukee ranks 19th at -.6 per game, and Indiana ranks 11th in turnovers at 13 per game, while the Bucks rank 28th at 16 turnovers per game.

Just because it's one game doesn't mean there's little value. Check out this other parlay & cash in!

The Spread
Most books we checked with Thursday morning opened the line on this game at Milwaukee -1.5, and that number was holding steady in the early betting.

Indiana is only 13-22 SU on the road this season, but 20-13 ATS, suggesting it's been a tad underrated on the NBA odds when playing away from home.

Milwaukee is 19-14 SU but 15-18 ATS at home.

Neither team has inspired much betting confidence lately, so this is a tough call. But the line on this game almost looks like it's trying to entice a sucker bet on the home team. So we'll go with the Pacers, to win this one outright.

 

The Total
The OVER/UNDER on tonight's game opened at right around 187; in the early betting many books dropped that figure to 186.5.

The three meetings between these teams this season, minus the overtime in the most recent meeting, have averaged just 182 total points. The first meeting played UNDER its total of 193; the second meeting played UNDER 194; and the third meeting just squeezed OVER its total of 188 in regulation, going to overtime tied at 96-96.

Indiana has played three OVERS in a row, scoring and allowing at least 100 points each game. But we think that's a bit out of the norm for the Pacers.

Milwaukee has played three OVERS in its last four games, although that's a bit unusual for the Bucks, especially since their big trade. Milwaukee has also been held to 90 points or less in four of its last six games.

These two teams rank third and fourth in the league in FG defense; that's enough to push us toward the UNDER for this game.

 

NBA Pick
If we hook Indiana on the moneyline at +108 at 5Dimes with the UNDER 186.5, we're shooting for a two - NBA pick parlay payout of just over 3/1. So there it is.

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