Improving Kings to Cover Touchdown vs. the Freak's Bucks

Jason Lake

Tuesday, November 28, 2017 1:49 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 28, 2017 1:49 PM UTC

The Sacramento Kings have come to life over the past three games. Can they beat the NBA odds again this Tuesday against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks?

Free NBA Pick: Kings +7Best Line Offered: Heritage

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Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings

Apparently our criticism here at the home office has lit a fire under the Sacramento Kings. They’ve covered three straight games since we questioned their commitment to basketball, including wins over the Los Angeles Lakers (+1 away) and the Golden State Warriors (–13 away). Granted, the Warriors didn’t have Kevin Durant or Stephen Curry on Monday when they lost 110-106, but still.

Of course, we’re not questioning the commitment of the Kings players themselves. They haven’t been lying down, and the returns of Buddy Hield and Vince Carter from the injured list have helped Sacramento these past three games. That depth should come in handy when they play the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday (10 p.m. ET) on zero days of rest. The Kings are holding as 7-point home dogs as we go to press; our first consensus reports show unanimous consent for the Bucks, who haven’t played since Saturday.

Eric Bledsoe That You May Live

Our life-affirming analytics department likes Sacramento (6-14 SU, 8-10-2 ATS) at these NBA odds. At FiveThirtyEight, the Bucks (9-9 SU, 7-9-2 ATS) are projected as 3.5-point favorites at 64 percent to win. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index has Milwaukee at 69.1 percent to win, or between –5.5 and –6 according to Wizard of Odds. Who are we to argue?

It helps that the Bucks are only 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five. That’s after winning their first three games SU and ATS after trading Greg Monroe (minus-9.5 BPM in 79 minutes) and two draft picks to the Phoenix Suns for Bledsoe, who sits at minus-2.0 BPM thus far for his new employers. At least that’s better than the minus-4.6 BPM he posted in three games for the Suns before this infamous tweet:

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I Dont wanna be here

— Eric Bledsoe (@EBled2) October 22, 2017

The NBA fined Bledsoe $10,000 for bad punctuation and improper majuscule use, but he still got his wish: a one-way ticket out of Phoenix. While Bledsoe’s connection with Giannis Antetokounmpo has been electric at times, he hasn’t exactly outplayed Malcolm Brogdon (minus-1.8 BPM) at point guard, even if Bledsoe is obviously a much better fit on this team than Monroe. We’ll bite our lip and recommend the Kings for your NBA picks this time, keeping the bet size suitably modest – it’s Sacramento, after all, in the second of a back-to-back.

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