Improve NBA Picks Success Rate With These Post All-Star Break Betting Trends

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, February 12, 2015 4:04 PM UTC

Thursday, Feb. 12, 2015 4:04 PM UTC

Our systems from Sports Insights have helped us identify nice year-to-year trends in the NBA Odds this season, and with the All Star Break in our midst, it’s time to start looking ahead to the second half. Here are three trends that could help your NBA Picks post All Star Break. 

Bet Big Underdogs
Even after the All Star Break, it doesn’t take long for players to become tired again. Injuries are starting to mount, and the bad teams are, for the most part, starting to play a little better. This is true with a system I just researched for big dogs. Since 2006, underdogs between +13 and +16 in the months of February, March and April have a rate of return of over 13%. The system is already 4-1 this season in the month of February, and it’s cashed two in a row thanks to the Sixers’ close game against the Warriors and the Nets only losing by nine points to the Grizzlies recently.

This isn’t surprising to see. Games normally get more competitive down the stretch, and late in the season games start getting a bit more volatile because of tired legs. Games like the Warriors only beating the Sixers by five points are going to become more common. Keep that in mind when you see an underdog of +13 or higher posted on the NBA odds boards.


Bet OVER with Losing Teams on Short Rest
When the season gets into the months of February and March, teams start to drop out of playoff contention. This leads to younger players seeing more time on the court, and for losing teams after the All Star Break, it means the over is normally a good play. If both teams have losing records, and are on either one or no days rest between games, the over is 80-58 since 2006. That may not seem like a lot, but two teams with losing records do face off against one another on short rest once in a while.

Even though it’s not quite the All Star Break, we are well over the halfway mark of the season. We have already had one play on this system between the Nuggets and Celtics, however it ended in a push. Since last season, the system is 7-3-1.


Bet Underdogs on the Moneyline Between +350 & +475
This one happens a bit more often in the second half, and while I don’t recommend you blindly place your NBA picks on all underdogs between those specific ranges, it is interesting. A moneyline underdog in the NBA between +350 and +475 would likely be between +8 and +9 in the NBA Odds for the spread. However even though betting that moneyline range SU is only 115-411 since 2006, it has a return on investment (ROI) of nearly 11% thanks to being given 4/1 in most cases.

If you were to have bet $100 on every underdog between this range since 2006, you would have a bankroll of more than $5700 today, a substantial ROI. It’s already cashed once this season with the Clippers besting the Mavs two nights ago as +8 ½ underdogs. It’s these kinds of spots you have to look for, so for the second half if you see an underdog of +8 or +9, think about a small wager on the moneyline, especially on the road. I know it sounds strange, but the ROI improves to nearly 16% when the underdog is on the road and the moneyline is +350 to +475. 

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