Huge Payout with NBA Picks on Grizzlies +175 vs. Warriors: Statistical Breakdown Forecasts Upset of Odds in Game 4

Charles Stark

Monday, May 11, 2015 11:27 AM UTC

Monday, May. 11, 2015 11:27 AM UTC

In this fourth Game of the defensive-minded Playoffs series, I am placing my NBA Picks on the Memphis Grizzlies on the plus money line to beat the Golden State Warriors once again.

Where is the Value?
When choosing my NBA picks, I am a big proponent of the plus money line.  I had Memphis to win their first game at home in the series and I see no reason not to back them again in this spot.  It is another situation where the public is going to back the more desperate team in Golden State and the NBA odds makers know this making Golden State a -5 favorite.  For me that gives a lot of value on a very good Memphis team playing with a lot of confidence on the plus money line at almost 2-1 odds.

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 4 Picks Against the Spread

Simply Better
Let’s take a look at the statistical breakdown of this series so far and Memphis has just been better across the board.  From the field and from beyond the arc these teams are practically even so the disparity is not such a factor.  The difference has been comfort, the Grizzlies have done the most to make the Warriors uncomfortable so far, playing at their pace and limiting Golden State’s offensive numbers significantly compared to their average.  On the year the Warriors averaged 86.7 shots per game, in this series 75, on the year from the field they shot 47.6%, in this series 45.3%, on the year from beyond the arc 39.4%, in this series 31.2%, turnovers on the year average 14.5 per game, this series 17.7, and assists per game on the year 27.1, in this series 20.7.  The numbers don’t lie.

Again, this is a veteran team that has gone deep in the playoffs before and understand the significance of playing tough on both ends of the floor.  If Golden State does not adjust to push tempo more and get back in their comfort zone the Grizzlies have a great shot not only to win this game but win the series.

Free NBA Picks: Memphis +173 at Pinnacle

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