How Will Derrick Rose's Knee Problems Affect Basketball Odds?

David Lawrence

Thursday, August 21, 2014 5:12 PM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 21, 2014 5:12 PM UTC

The speculation surrounding Derrick Rose has already begun to grow. Just a short time into the Team USA warm-up period before the World Cup of Basketball at the end of August, Rose is already experiencing enough soreness in his knees that he feels physically bothered.

Team USA officials held him out of a Wednesday night game in New York and are exercising great caution with him. What is the significance of this event in NBA betting terms? Should a lot of stock be placed in it?

What This Means For Team USA
With all the players who have either asked out of Team USA; never did join the 2014 roster in the first place; or have been injured over the past weeks (especially Paul George), the Americans’ amount of depth continues to shrink. Is Rose really going to be able to play every game in Spain for this tournament? It’s very hard to think that’s going to happen now. If team officials are this concerned about him, it points to a process in which Rose will either have to take whole games off, or he’s going to have to play very limited minutes in each game he plays, probably no more than 15 minutes in every other game and no more than 25 in the alternating games. This is just not what the Americans could afford. They are limited in terms of their interior scoring, and they were counting on more point production from the perimeter. Rose averaged 16 points per game last season (rounded up to the next whole number), but he didn’t play very long into the season, a reason for his low 35.4 field goal shooting percentage. He averaged 4.3 assists and 3.2 rebounds in the time he spent on the floor, and that’s with a body that didn’t have its full degree of lift and power. A healthy, explosive Rose is much better than those numbers, and those numbers aren’t bad at all. Not having a fit Rose for the full tournament, which is a likely and educated guess at this point, would shrink the bench and force Team USA to have to get its points from other sources, most likely Anthony Davis in the paint and James Harden on the perimeter. It’s not what this team needed, and picking Spain to win the tournament becomes a better bet as things go along.


What This Means For The Chicago Bulls
Can you imagine what Bulls fans and Team USA assistant coach Tom Thibodeau, the head coach of the Chicago Bulls, are thinking right now? This is only soreness and not structural damage, but the frailty of Rose’s knees seems like something very different from what Rose was talking about a few weeks ago, when the star point guard expressed great confidence in how he was feeling. If just one game this past weekend against Brazil did this to Rose, how much more will the grind of the NBA season wear him down? How is Rose going to be ready for the playoffs if his fitness during the regular season is in question?


How To Bet The News
If you’ve been sitting on the fence about the Bulls, this news shouldn’t necessarily make you cut bait. It might be a little too early for that. However, this should make you much more concerned about the viability of the Bulls in the long run.

We’ve been talking up the Bulls as a great early-season bet as Rose should be strong in the early going. However, it looks like he might get the “Dwyane Wade” type of treatment as the team tries to keep him healthy for the postseason. That’s bad news for bettors as Wade only played 54 games last season and was often kept out last minute. That doesn’t mean Rose will be the same but the fact that he didn’t play shows he’s still limited. The regular season is not long off and Rose is already logging minutes.

In terms of futures, there’s a reason why the Cleveland Cavaliers, whose roster is not finalized yet, are at -125 to win the Eastern Conference and the Bulls are at +250. We don’t know about Rose. He can probably make it through the regular season but the playoffs are a grind. It’s not a death blow but it’s not good news. Stay away from the Bulls' NBA odds to win the East and their odds to win a title (+600).

comment here