Houston Rockets vs Phoenix Suns - Free Picks, November 16th

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, November 16, 2017 7:28 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 16, 2017 7:28 PM UTC

The Rockets and Suns should also be a high scoring game tonight, but the sportsbooks and public know this hand in hand. Therefore, is it a sucker wager to blindly bet the over at 228 ½ points? Not exactly.

Rockets vs. Suns

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Free NBA Pick: OVER 116 1HBest Line Offered: at Pinnacle

Instead of hoping and praying on one side or the other on the total tonight, I think the first half number of 116 is the way for you to extract some value out of these NBA Odds tonight.

The Suns are the Suns, but they are going to give up points regardless of whom they are playing. This has been true in the first halves of games especially. The Suns are allowing 57.1 points per first half this season, and if that’s their averages, I expect the Rockets to be well into the 60s.

Houston is a different team in the first half of games so far this year. They play at a pace of more than 103 possessions per game in the first half, compared to just over 99 in the second half.

Their offensive efficiency is also way up in the first half. They average 116.2 points per 100 possessions in the first halves of games, compared to 103.4 in the second. Most teams see a dip in the second half due to fatigue and tightening of defenses or schemes. However, that’s a huge dip from Houston, and against a team like Phoenix, I could see both teams in the upper 50s at half, or even in the low to mid 60s.

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