Hot Home Team & 'Under' the NBA Picks for Celtics vs. Bucks

Darin Zank

Tuesday, November 10, 2015 11:23 AM GMT

Milwaukee started this season with three straight losses, but now has won four straight. Can the Bucks cover as short home chalk on the NBA odds against Boston Tuesday night?

Celtics-Bucks Betting Odds
Most of Tuesday's NBA odds market opened this game with Milwaukee favored by a point or a point and a half, with an OVER/UNDER of right around 202. Both those numbers were holding steady in the early action.

 

The Situation
Boston (2-3 SU 2-3 ATS) broke a three-game losing streak last time out with a 118-98 victory over Washington Friday night. The Celtics jumped out to a 40-25 lead after one quarter, led by 23 at the half and never allowed the Wizards to get closer than 14 points from there on out. On the night Boston shot 45 percent from the floor and hit 12 of its first 21 shots from beyond the arc, on its way to an easy cover as a two-point home favorite.

However, just before that, the Celtics shot just 42 percent in a 100-98 loss to Indiana; just before that they shot just 36 percent in losing to San Antonio 95-87; and just before that they shot just 38 percent in a 113-103 loss to Toronto. On the season, Boston is shooting just 41 percent from the floor, although it's also holding opponents to 41 percent FG shooting.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, began this season with three straight losses, but has since won four in a row, including a 94-86 victory over Brooklyn Saturday night, covering at -6. The Bucks shot 45 percent from the field, and hit eight-of-20 shots from long range, while holding the Nets to 42 percent shooting.

Just before that, Milwaukee won at New York 99-92; just before that, the Bucks defeated Philly 91-87; and just before that, they won at Brooklyn 103-96. So, Milwaukee is feeling a little better about itself now, after losing to the Knicks, Wizards and Raptors back-to-back-to-back to begin this season.

 

Celtics-Bucks Recent Series
Milwaukee took two of three games from Boston last season, winning at home 96-93 and at the Garden 110-101, then losing back in Beertown 105-100. The Bucks outshot the Celtics in those three games combined 49 percent to 45 percent.

Also, the OVERS went 2-1 in this series last season, as the three games averaged 202 points, against an average O/U of 195.

 

Totals Trends
Boston is 3-2 on the OVERS this season, as Celtics games have averaged 204 points.

Milwaukee is 4-3 on the UNDERS, as Bucks games have averaged 199 points.

 

Injury Update
Boston G Marcus Smart has missed the last couple of games with a sore toe, and his status for Tuesday night is uncertain.

Over on the other bench, Milwaukee just got some good news, with the recent return of G Jabari Parker to the lineup, although G Michael Carter-Williams has missed recent action with a sore ankle, and OJ Mayo is out with a sore hammy.

 

Celtics-Bucks Pick
Milwaukee seems to have found itself, after a slow start, and if it can start getting some contributions from Parker, even better. Boston, meanwhile, is still an iffy proposition, the way it shoots the ball. We like the Bucks here, the hot home team at a short spread. Also, both these teams are playing some decent defense at the moment, so we're thinking UNDER for your NBA picks.

Free NBA Picks: Milwaukee -1 at Pinnacle and UNDER 202 at JustBet