Home Team Money Line & 'Under' Our NBA Picks for Heat vs. Jazz

Kevin Stott

Saturday, January 9, 2016 5:10 PM GMT

Let’s take a look at the recent series Trends, ATS and SU records, streaks and any other pertinent information here and see if we can come up with a decent NBA pick or two.

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Final Score Prediction: Utah Jazz 94   Miami Heat 91
NBA Picks: Jazz Money Line +118 & Under 183.5
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

 

Miami Heat vs. Utah Jazz
Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and the host Utah Jazz (15-20 SU, 15-21-0 ATS) welcome Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and the Southeastern Division-leading Miami Heat (22-14 SU, 18-17-1 ATS) to the Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City on Saturday night for this inter-conference showdown and the second of two meetings between these teams this Regular Season. The Heat won the first meeting in Miami early on this season (Nov. 12), 92-91, but failed to cover as 5-point favorites and the game ducked under the closing Total of 184½ (by 1½ points). NBA odds have opened the visiting Heat as 2½-point favorites (Paddy Power) with the game’s Total (Points) set at 189½ (Matchbook). The Money Line odds see Miami priced at -140 (Paddy Power) with the host Utah lined at +118 on the takeback. The Utah Jazz Team Total Points has been set at 94 (Matchbook) with the Miami Heat Team Total Points at 96 (Matchbook) while the 1st Half odds see the host Jazz at +118 on the Money Line, the Heat at -123 and a Tie (Draw) at +1,050 (Matchbook) with the 1st Half Total set at 94½ (Matchbook).

 

Miami Heat
The Miami Heat (23-15-0 ATS, 14-7 ATS Road) and Head Coach Erik Spoelstra come in off a Friday night date in Phoenix against the setting Suns (3-8 L11) in which the visitors from the Sunshine State defeated Phoenix, 103-95, covering the 5-point spread as Dwyane Wade had 27 points, Goran Dragic 22 points and Gerald Green added 21 points off the Bench in the victory. Currently in 3rd place in the Eastern Conference and playing some decent basketball, Miami (45/1 to win NBA Championship, Marathon) has done a wonderful job assembling a formidable and experienced Starting 5 to make a run in C Hassan Whiteside (12.4 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 3.2 bpg), PF Chris Bosh (19.2 ppg, 8.0 rpg), SF Luol Deng (10.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg), SG Dwyane Wade (18.5 ppg, 4.5 apg) and PG Dragic (11.9 ppg, 5.1 apg). And the heat have some nice guys on the bench too, including veterans Udonis Haslem, Chris Andersen, Amar’e Stoudemire and Gerald Green, Duke Rookie Justise Winslow, Beno Udoh and  the aforementioned Johnson. This is a team that rolls as its Starting 5 rolls and when Whiteside, Bosh and the rejuvenated 33-year-old Chicagoan Wade are all having good games, this team can beat anybody in the East and almost anybody in the West, although Consistency has always been one of this aging team’s problems and the Bench could use a couple more talented scorers to give Miami (13/1 to win Eastern Conference, Marathon) a real chance. And specifically here, Gobert and/or Withey trying to neutralize Whiteside in the middle and in the paint in both Rebounding and Scoring will be a key for the hosts—a tough task for teams of late facing the Heat (7-6 SU Road).

 

Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz (15-20 SU, 18-17 ATS) and Head Coach Quin Snyder come into this game off a 103-94 Loss at the Toyota Center in Houston on Thursday night in a game in which the visitors led by 5 points at Halftime, but fell victim to the Rockets and a 2nd Half surge in which they were outscored by 14 points. The Jazz (6-4 ATS L10 meetings in this series) were led by SF Gordon Hayward (15 points), PF Trevor Booker (12 points, 9 rebounds), SG Rodney Hood (10 points) and SF Chris Johnson (11 points) off the Bench, but for the Jazz to beat the Heat here, they’ll have to have more than three guys in double-digits (scoring). Two of those guys who will matter here will be Centers Jeff Withey (9 points, 4 rebounds vs. Rockets) and Rudy Gobert (6 points, 3 rebounds). F Trey Lyles (9 points, SF) filled in for Derrick Favors (DNP, Back Spasms) again on Thursday and Utah (250/1 to win NBA Championship, Totesport) has now gone 8 straight games without having the Georgia Tech product in its Starting 5 and not only has Favors’ absence hurt the Jazz’s chances—still in 8th place in the Western Conference—but combined with the Injury to Colorado product, SG Alec Burks (14.3 ppg, Scheduled to have Surgery last Tuesday), a serious dent in Utah’s Postseason chances. So, the combined play of Booker (5.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg), PGs Trey Burke (15.7 ppg) and Raul Neto, Gobert (12.4 ppg), Hood (12.9 ppg) and Hayward (18.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg) will really matter with Burks out and Favors (16.8 ppg) still on the shelf with his bad Back.

 

Series Trends, Logical Reasoning and Picks
The last meeting between these two teams was in Miami earlier this season (Nov. 12) and the Heat held off the Jazz, 92-91 as Chris Bosh had 25 points. The Jazz covered the Point Spread though, as Utah was getting 4 points and the game went Under the 184½ closing Total by kust 1½ points. With Miami playing in a Time Zone (EST) 2 Hours ahead of Utah (MST), and with Body Clocks used to that Time Zone, this game will tip off at 9:05 p.m. in their bodies, ending somewhere after 11 p.m. And this on a Road trip with a stop the night before in Phoenix—meaning Travel was involved from Arizona to Utah, another wear-you-down thing—so a Road back-to-back, far, far away from Home is never fun no matter how good (or bad) you are in the NBA. With that in mind and the Heat more of a Public team, there is some perceived value in taking the Jazz here in this spot and they will by lying in wait with 1-Day Rest (11-7 ATS) after losing to the Rockets, 103-94 on Thursday night in Houston after holding a 5-point lead at Halftime while Miami will be playing on the second straight night of a Road back-to-back “out West.” As far as the Total and Trends, the Over is 7-3-1 ATS the L11 meetings in this series but the Under is 7-3 the L10 Jazz games here at Home and (the Under is) 14-4 the L18 Utah games played on a Saturday. And the Under is also a powerful 35-17-1 the L53 Heat games played on the Road (66%) but maybe the biggest (recent and relevant) Trend is Miami’s 3-9-1 Road Under mark. And with Miami (3-2 ATS on 0 Days Rest) probably a bit tired after playing in Phoenix the night before and having to rally in the 4th Quarter for the hard-fought victory, this seems a better Under play but the number seems spot on. Take Jazz moneyline & 'Under' as your NBA picks here.