Home/Away Splits Point To ‘Over’ For Pacers-Bucks

Wednesday, March 6, 2019 8:31 PM UTC

Wednesday, Mar. 6, 2019 8:31 PM UTC

The Milwaukee Bucks are the most profitable team on the NBA odds boards. But they might not get paid Thursday when they host the Indiana Pacers.

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 5:
17-15-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 22-9 Totals

Indiana (42-23 SU, 34-31 ATS) at Milwaukee (48-16 SU, 37-24-3 ATS)

Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET, TNT
Free NBA Pick: Over
Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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If you haven’t been putting the Milwaukee Bucks in your NBA picks this year, I don’t know what to tell you. How often does a small-market franchise that nobody pays attention to become the best team in basketball? Not only do the Bucks lead the league at 48-16 SU, they’re also the NBA’s most profitable team at 37-24-3 ATS. And they just keep getting better.

Thursday’s game against the Indiana Pacers does pose a few problems. The Pacers have been hard to kill; even with Victor Oladipo (plus-2.2 BPM) out for the year with a ruptured quad, Indiana are still among the Top 4 in the Eastern Conference. And the Bucks are carrying a lot of chalk into this matchup, laying 10 points on the NBA odds board at press time. Is Milwaukee still the right choice?

The Totes Board

As I write this, the Bucks have already moved from –10 to –10.5 at several locations, mere minutes after the first lines hit the board, so Milwaukee might be the sharp pick. However, FiveThirtyEight project the Bucks as 11-point favorites using their fancy computers. We’d prefer to see at least a 2-point gap between the projections and the actual odds, since we need to overcome the –110 vigorish to make a profit.

We keep saying that NBA totals are where it’s at – see our record above for anecdotal evidence. And the total just might be the right play in this case; the Bucks have the ‘over’ at 16-14 when they play at home, while the Pacers have the ‘over’ at 18-13 on the road. This isn’t part of a back-to-back situation for either team, so everyone should be on deck with fresh legs. Everyone who’s healthy, that is.

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Sabonis (left ankle sprain) remains out. He received treatment while his teammates shot around, then did some live-action work on the floor. pic.twitter.com/CRamJqAHPg

— Scott Agness (@ScottAgness) 6 de março de 2019
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Bonis In The Boneyard

Sadly for the Pacers, that doesn’t include our main man Domantas Sabonis (plus-2.0 OBPM, plus-2.2 DBPM). He’s Indiana’s top performer, and he’s been ruled out of this game with an ankle injury. That won’t help the Pacers, but Sabonis does have more of an impact on defense than offense, so maybe that relatively small 222.5-point total is still within reach. The over/under is neutral at 3-3 in the six games Sabonis has missed this year.

The Bucks are relatively healthy, and they’ve driven the ‘over’ to the pay window in four of seven games since adding Nikola Mirotic (plus-1.6 OBPM, minus-0.1 DBPM) to the lineup. However, Pau Gasol (minus-1.5 OBPM, plus-2.6 DBPM) is now on the team, and his five scoreless minutes against the Phoenix Suns helped the ‘under’ get paid in his debut on Monday. Better make it a small wager, folks, and may the sphere be with you.

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