Home Advantage to Lead to NBA Odds Upset in Spurs/Nuggets?

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, January 20, 2015 3:28 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2015 3:28 PM UTC

Home-court advantage is more important in the NBA than any other sport. Keep this in mind when placing your NBA pick for San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets.

San Antonio Spurs (-8) vs. Denver Nuggets 9:00 ET
The San Antonio Spurs visit the Denver Nuggets tonight at 9:00 pm ET in a battle of 2 teams headed opposite directions.  The situation also greatly favors San Antonio. 

Denver has been playing without key big men McGee (leg) and Gallinari (knee).  It has left an already thin Denver team in dire straits for this contest tonight.  For, the Nuggets are playing their 4th game in 5 nights after playing in Dallas on Friday, home to Minnesotaon Saturday, at Golden St. last night and now hosting San Antonio.  That is not a good sign for a Denver team, who is just 7-15 ATS unrested L2Y, including 3-6 ATS in that role this year.  The Nuggets showed signs of fatigue last night in a 122-79 rout by Golden St. In fact, Denver has lost all 3 games in the previous 4 days by 8 or more points, including 113-105 as an 11 point favorite in NBA odds on this court to a 7-33 SU Minnesota team on Saturday night.  Those losses have dropped the Denver record to 8-14 ATS, following a defeat.  In an earlier matchup on this court vs. San Antonio, Denver lost by a score of 99-91.  Now, they must face a Spurs team who looks to be on the top of their game.

The defending champions, San Antonio Spurs, have struggled for much of the season.  They are currently mired in 7th place in the Western Conference standings with a record of 26-16 SU.  That leaves them 3 games out of 4th place which would provide them with a home court advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs.  Many of the San Antonio woes this year can be traced to the injury list.  Parker has missed numerous games, as has Kawhi Leonard (hand), last year’s playoff MVP.  Then, there have been the nights where HC Popovich rests his aging stars, understanding the importance of their full health and energy level once the playoffs start in April.  When the Spurs lost (105-104) at home to Detroit on January 6th, it dropped them to a 4-8 SU ATS slide.  But with the return of full health to Leonard and Parker, San Antonio has begun an uptick.  The Spurs have gone 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS in that timeframe, including victories of 110-96 vs. Portland and 89-69 vs. Utah in their previous 2 games.  That pair of outstanding defensive performances means the Spurs are allowing just 97.6 PPG on the defensive end, second only to Portland in the West.  Now that the 2nd half of the season has begun, it is often the time when San Antonio gets on one of their classic late-season rolls. 

Denver has been nothing special on their home court this year, going just 12-9 SU, but 9-12 ATS.  Now playing in the dreaded 4 in 5 scheduling scenario without a pair of their top interior players, this looks to be the ideal spot for the Nuggets to throw in the towel early.  The Spurs, like sharks smelling blood in the water, will be all too happy to oblige.  Finally, note that NBA single digit road favorites continue to prosper with a 109-73 ATS (60%) record. 

Free NBA Picks: Take San Antonio Spurs -7.5 at YouWager

comment here