Heat vs. Spurs NBA Picks 'Over/Under': Several Factors Forecast a Low-Scoring Affair

Ross Benjamin

Friday, February 6, 2015 8:47 PM GMT

Take advantage of our free NBA pick for Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs. His main focus of the article will be geared toward the total in this contest, and it concludes a selection.

Rematch of 2014 NBA Finals
The San Antonio Spurs will entertain the Miami Heat this evening at 9:35 PM ET. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN. According to the NBA betting odds at Bovada, San Antonio is a 10.5 point favorite, and the posted total is 185.5. This will be the first meeting of the season between these teams. They last met during the 2014 NBA Finals won by San Antonio in five games.

 

Miami is Masters of Slowing the Pace
If the Miami Heat has done anything well this season, it’s been their ability to effectively slow the pace a game down to their liking. Miami is averaging just 75 field goal attempts per game this season. They’ve also held the opposition to only 76 field goal attempts per game when playing on the road. As a result, only seven of the Heat’s twenty-six road games (26.9%) have gone over the total. As a matter of fact, despite going over the number in their previous two games, Miami has stayed under the total during thirteen of their last sixteen overall. Miami has also scored just 91-points or less in eleven of their previous sixteen games.

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Spurs can Adapt to any Style
The San Antonio Spurs have displayed in recent years that they can play at any tempo in which their opponent prefers to, and are very adept at doing so. Despite allowing 103-points or more in each of their previous two games, the Spurs have allowed less than 100-points in twelve of their last seventeen contests, and went under the total in eleven of those seventeen. The Spurs offensive production has suffered a bit over the past three weeks. They’ve scored less than 100-points in seven of their previous eleven games, and shot 42% or less from the field in nine of those eleven.

 

Final Analysis
Tonight will be the third road game in four days for the Heat, in addition to their fifth game overall in the past seven days. That’s hardly a recipe for fresh legs, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see them shoot less than 40% from the field tonight. One way to overcompensate for fatigue, especially when cast into a role of a large underdog, is to slow the pace of the game down. As I already alluded to earlier in this article, Miami’s been quite proficient in the art of doing just exactly that this season. An aging San Antonio club will have no qualms with playing a slower tempo game. I’m going to lean heavily on this game be a low scoring affair when making my NBA picks for Friday.

NBA Picks: Play on the Heat and Spurs to go under the total of 185.5 at Bovada