Heat vs. Raptors: NBA Odds Set To Cash With The Underdog Once More

Charles Stark

Thursday, May 5, 2016 11:48 AM GMT

Thursday, May. 5, 2016 11:48 AM GMT

NBA Odds have Toronto the same type of favorite for game 2 so is there value in taking the home Raptors to bounce back or will Miami take this game to the wire again?

Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors

NBA odds makers have made Miami a +4.5 underdog like at Pinnacle -110. Although they shot lights out from beyond the arc and I don't expect them to do that again tonight. However, for my NBA pick I think there is good value on taking Miami once more to pull off another upset or take this game to the wire again.

 

Miami Heat
In game one Miami shot 44.9% from the field and an incredible 72.7% from distance but had 20 turnovers leading to 22 Toronto points. Going 8-11 from beyond the arc is an incredible statistic in any game but as we start to break down game one I just think Miami is the better team across the board. The fact that they were able to overcome so many turnovers, a statistic I don't think they will match in game two, they still were able to overcome a Toronto team that has been good at home all season.

What I like about Miami tonight is I believe they can duplicate the same type of defense they implemented in the first game and the fact they dominated the boards outrebounding Toronto 62-47. Although they will not shoot as well from distance tonight they can put up some good offensive numbers again as they matched the Raptors shot for shot both teams going 40-89 from the floor.  Something they will have to do better is knock down their free throws where they weren't great during the season at just 75% but which is much better than their 14-21 showing the other night.

 

Toronto Raptors
In game one Toronto shot 44.9% from the field but just 23.8% from distance making only 5-21 from beyond the arc. As mentioned above I thought they did a decent job defensively forcing Miami into 20 turnovers which led to 22 points, however they had their own troubles with 15 turnovers allowing 16 points. Kyle Lowry has not been shooting the ball very well despite his amazing three-pointer to tie the game to go overtime and for Toronto to make the finals he will have to play much better.

For the most part in this first game I thought Miami dominated the whole way and almost stole defeat out of the mouth of victory. They are just so stagnant on offense sometimes with only 19 assists and shooting the ball really poorly from distance. This was all exacerbated by the fact Miami was able to grab 11 offensive rebounds when Toronto has been one of the better defensive rebounding teams all season. In game two although I expect Toronto to probably shoot a little bit better from distance I believe there is still good value on grabbing the points with a Miami team that matches up with them extremely well. If you're interested in more  NBA picks, go ahead and take a look at these adjusted odds to consider before doing so!

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Free MLB Pick: Miami Heat +4.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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