The NBA Finals resumes Sunday with the Denver Nuggets looking to go up 2-0 and the Miami Heat hoping for a split before the series shifts to South Beach. Here is our Heat-Nuggets prediction based on the best NBA odds from the top sports betting apps.
The Denver Nuggets made the most of their NBA Finals debut with a 104-93 victory over the Miami Heat on Thursday. As I noted while discussing 3 reasons to bet on a Heat comeback in the 2023 NBA Finals, the Heat are still capable of winning this series. But it will take their best effort against a Nuggets squad that has yet to lose a home game during this postseason run.
Sunday's Game 2 will take place in Denver once again. But will Miami be adjusted to the altitude enough to even the series up? Or will the Nuggets, who are three-possession favorites at our best sports betting apps, take a commanding 2-0 lead?
Perhaps our best bet will give you an idea of what we think.
Here is our best Heat-Nuggets prediction (odds via DraftKings; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Heat vs. Nuggets prediction
Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 3-pointers (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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I wasn't on this Over in Game 1, but we can safely call it a bad beat. Denver small forward Michael Porter Jr. attempted 11 3-pointers, but only two found the bottom of the net. The 18.2% 3-point shooting percentage marked his worst effort since Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals.
But the volume was there once again, and that's really what's important. Porter has now attempted double-digit 3-pointers in each of his last three games, with 31 of his 43 shots taking place from beyond the arc. That's what we care about as bettors, especially from a player who shot 41.4% from deep during the regular season and 38.6% from long range so far during the playoffs.
Porter is a better 3-point shooter than what he showed on Thursday during a game in which the Nuggets shot 29.6% from beyond the arc. The 24-year-old has cleared this mark in eight of his 16 playoff games, including six of his last nine outings. He averaged three triples per contest during the 2022-23 regular season.
More than that, DraftKings offers such a steal with a favorable Over price on this prop. Most of our best NBA betting sites are asking bettors to pay some steep juice to take this Over, including Pinnacle with its -141 vig. That's certainly not lost on us when placing this bet.
Miami ran a zone on nearly 20 of Denver's possessions in Game 1. If that happens, we expect the Nuggets to find an open look for one of their best knockdown shooters. Porter should bounce back in a big way during Game 2, and we're betting on it with this four-star pick.
Hopefully we're able to speak this into existence enough for our Jon Metler to cash his plus-money pre-series prop on Porter to lead the NBA Finals in 3-pointers featured in his NBA Finals predictions.
Heat vs. Nuggets best odds
|Over 2.5 3PM||Over 2.5 3PM||Over 2.5 3PM||Over 2.5 3PM||Over 2.5 3PM|
The best part about this prop is the great deal we're getting while shopping around at our best sports betting sites. While Porter's line has been set at 2.5 across the board, DraftKings is offering a huge discount with a -135 price on the Over. This prop is playable at -140 or better before we'd pass.
For those interested in some plus-money odds, FanDuel is featuring an alternate market. Porter is +180 to make four-plus 3-pointers and +460 to knock down five-plus triples. Both such props could be worth a sprinkle, if you're like me and believe Porter will bounce back during Game 2.
Heat vs. Nuggets odds
Heat vs. Nuggets odds analysis
The Nuggets opened as 10-point favorites at the best sportsbooks after closing as 9-point favorites ahead of their 11-point win in Game 1. Denver is now laying 8.5 points at the best live betting sites.
The total has also experienced some movement, dropping down to 214.5 after opening at 216, but it has since moved back up to 216 points.
Heat vs. Nuggets game info
- Date: Sunday, June 4, 8 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
- Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Heat-Nuggets pick made 6/2/2023 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
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