Heat vs. Bulls NBA Picks: Side With Chicago +4 At Home

Nikki Adams

Friday, March 11, 2016 7:22 PM UTC

Friday, Mar. 11, 2016 7:22 PM UTC

The Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls collide on Friday’s round of NBA action. Join us as we breakdown this matchup and serve up choice NBA picks to kick off your weekend in fine style.

Miami Heat (37-27)
The Heat are a solid 37-27 on the season, which includes a 21-12 mark at home but a modest 16-15 mark on the road. They’ll be looking to transcend that modest road form on the season with a win over the Chicago Bulls tonight, and the odds makers appear to be tipping the game ever so slightly in their favor.

As it is, the Heat are installed as the 3-point road chalk at most sports betting outlets with some going as high as 3.5-points. That’s up from an opening 2-point line at Pinnacle. In money line betting markets the Heat strike a confident pose as the -145 to -165 road favorites (the price varies within that range from sportsbook to sportsbook so be sure to shop around for the best NBA odds).

It’s been another solid season by the Heat as they sit atop the Southeast Division of the Eastern Conference with a solid 37-27 SU mark that yields a 57.8 % winning ratio on the season and a 34-29-1 ATS mark that yields a 54% covering ration, both of which are underscored by a 0.9-point winning margin and a negative 0.3-point differential versus the spread. Most recently, though, they are coming off a loss to Milwaukee on the road, a 114-108 loss as the 3.5-point road chalk at closing doors.

The loss snaps a two-game winning streak on the road and a five-game winning streak going into Wednesday’s clash with the Milwaukee Bucks. It also sees the Heat slip to a 16-15 SU mark and a 17-14-0 ATS mark on the road with a 2.2-point losing margin and a negative 0.2-point differential versus the spread.

If there’s one bright spot for Heat fans it’s the fact that they are 16-10-0 SU and 15-10-1 ATS after a loss this season, which includes a 0.7-point winning margin and a plus 1.7-point differential versus the spread.


Chicago Bulls (32-31)
Chicago’s playoff hopes are very much in play, but their patchy form in recent weeks is doing them no favors. Neither is the schedule for that matter as it has them playing their fourth game in the last seven days, second in as many nights. Unfortunately, that’s the way the ball rolls.

The Bulls are 5-5 SU in the last ten games, highlighted by a loss to the San Antonio Spurs in Thursday’s rounds of NBA action. Faced with their second game in as many nights, the NBA odds are predictably stacked against them with prices for the home win ranging anywhere from +130 to +145. Spread lines opened at 2-points but have been steadily bet up to 3.5-points at most sports betting outlets. With more action sure to come down the wire as game time approaches don’t be surprised if this line goes higher to 4-points, if not more.

However, the Bulls are riding a two-game winning streak at home after beating both Houston and Milwaukee – the latter of which just beat the Miami Heat, mind. Indeed, they’ve won five of their last six home contests – most notably, beating Toronto 116-106. They just might fancy their chances despite the NBA odds.

On the season, the Bulls are a so-so 32-21-0 SU and 26-37-0 ATS with a 1-point losing margin on average and a negative -1.7-point differential versus the spread. At home they are  21-11 SU for a 65.5% winning ratio and 14-8-0 ATS for a 43.8% covering ratio, both highlighted by a 1.9-point winning margin and a negative -1.3-point differential versus the spread. It’s road form that’s letting them down mainly at 11-20 SU.

As home underdogs, they are 4-3-0 SU and ATS with a 5.9-point losing margin and a negative 1.9-point differential versus the spread. After a loss they are 15-15-0 SU and 14-16-0 ATS with a 0.9-point losing margin


NBA Betting Verdict 
On balance, the NBA betting outlook on this game does make sense. Miami Heat are clearly the better team overall and, as such, they are deemed the favorites on the NBA odds board. However, they’re not infallible on the road, which is something that this market outlook doesn’t appear to appreciate enough. That coupled with the fact that the Bulls are pretty good at home this season means the Bulls have a reasonable shot at upsetting the NBA odds. As such, we’re taking the Bulls as the home underdogs on our NBA picks.

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NBA Picks: Bulls +4 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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