Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Saturday, May 15, 2021 – 8:00 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum
The Miami Heat (39-31 SU, 33-35-2 ATS) are coming together at the right time, winning their last four games and they will be a tough out in the playoffs. The Milwaukee Bucks (45-25 SU, 31-38-1 ATS) are also playing well, going 7-1 in their last eight games. Miami is just a half-game behind Atlanta for fourth place in the East while Milwaukee is in third place, one game behind Brooklyn. There's a lot at stake for both teams.
The Bucks opened as 1.5-point favorites and over at FiveThirtyEight, they also have them at -5. This leaves a 3.5-point gap between the projections and the actual NBA odds. We need at least two points between the projections and the lines before we lay any serious wood. Here we are getting enough. FiveThirtyEight gives the Bucks a 69 percent chance to win. The equivalent moneyline is -223.
For support, we turn to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin’s projections; he has the Bucks at -5.22 using his Rating numbers, and at -5.27 using his eigenvector analysis. Is there some room to grab potential betting value with the Bucks at Bovada Sports
Both Teams Need the 'W'
The Heat are coming off an impressive 106-94 home win against the 76ers, led by 21 points from Jimmy Butler and 18 points and 12 rebounds from Bam Adebayo. Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic combined for 33 points off the bench and they can be an X-factor in the playoffs.
I feel like the Heat
The Bucks, on the other hand, lost 146-125 in San Antonio before getting back on track with comfortable wins against the Magic and Pacers. Milwaukee is also hitting their stride, winning eight of their 10 games. This team goes as reigning NBA MVP and DPOY Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The 'Greek Freak' had 40 points, 15 rebounds
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.