Heat vs. Bucks NBA Picks: Who Wants It More?

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Heat vs. Bucks NBA Picks: Who Wants It More?
Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks. Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP

Two surging with a lot to play for clash on Saturday when the Miami Heat visit the Milwaukee Bucks. Here’s a complete preview, including updated betting odds and NBA picks.

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Saturday, May 15, 2021 – 8:00 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum

The Miami Heat (39-31 SU, 33-35-2 ATS) are coming together at the right time, winning their last four games and they will be a tough out in the playoffs. The Milwaukee Bucks (45-25 SU, 31-38-1 ATS) are also playing well, going 7-1 in their last eight games. Miami is just a half-game behind Atlanta for fourth place in the East while Milwaukee is in third place, one game behind Brooklyn. There's a lot at stake for both teams.

The Bucks opened as 1.5-point favorites and over at FiveThirtyEight, they also have them at -5. This leaves a 3.5-point gap between the projections and the actual NBA odds. We need at least two points between the projections and the lines before we lay any serious wood. Here we are getting enough. FiveThirtyEight gives the Bucks a 69 percent chance to win. The equivalent moneyline is -223.

For support, we turn to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin’s projections; he has the Bucks at -5.22 using his Rating numbers, and at -5.27 using his eigenvector analysis. Is there some room to grab potential betting value with the Bucks at Bovada Sports Betting.

Both Teams Need the 'W'

The Heat are coming off an impressive 106-94 home win against the 76ers, led by 21 points from Jimmy Butler and 18 points and 12 rebounds from Bam Adebayo. Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic combined for 33 points off the bench and they can be an X-factor in the playoffs.

I feel like the Heat are not getting the respect they deserve as defending Eastern Conference champions. Everyone talks about the 76ers, Nets and Bucks as contenders to make it out of the East but if healthy, the Heat have a deep roster with continuity and a great head coach. They can make another deep run. I wouldn't want to cross paths with them in the playoffs.

The Bucks, on the other hand, lost 146-125 in San Antonio before getting back on track with comfortable wins against the Magic and Pacers. Milwaukee is also hitting their stride, winning eight of their 10 games. This team goes as reigning NBA MVP and DPOY Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The 'Greek Freak' had 40 points, 15 rebounds and six assists against the Pacers and he's scored 20 points or more in six of his last seven games. Giannis and the Bucks haven't forgotten about last year's playoff exit against the Heat and they will come out ready to make a statement at home. Let's make some money for Triple Crown Betting with the Bucks at this price. Kendrick Nunn (plus-0.4 Value Over Replacement Player) is day-to-day for Miami with calf soreness and if he doesn't play I like Milwaukee's chances even more.

NBA Pick: Bucks -1.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Bucks -1.5(-105)
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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.