Heat & Raptors To Bring It Down A Notch For An 'Under' NBA Pick

Jason Lake

Wednesday, May 11, 2016 1:34 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 11, 2016 1:34 PM UTC

The series between the Miami Heat and the Toronto Raptors just keeps getting uglier. Meanwhile, the NBA odds have shifted back to Toronto for Wednesday's Game 5.

Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors
Okay, maybe we outsmarted ourselves here at the ranch. After having so much success with the UNDER during the first round of the NBA playoffs, we thought we were “selling high” by picking the OVER for Game 5 of the Eastern semi between the Miami Heat and the Toronto Raptors. We weren't the only ones; the total skyrocketed from 188.5 when we made out NBA picks to 194 points at the close.

Then the Raptors and Heat stunk up the joint. Again. Final score: Miami 94, Toronto 87 – in overtime, no less. Sweet merciful Minerva. So what do we do for Game 5 Wednesday night (8:00 p.m. ET, TNT) at the ACC? The total opened at 187 points on our NBA odds boards, then quickly shot back up to 188.5, with 90 percent of early bettors pounding the OVER. Trust the process? Or bail and look for value on the point spread?

Tillie's Punctured Spalding
I'll tell you this much: The Cleveland Cavaliers are loving life right now. They've already advanced to the Eastern final after sweeping the Atlanta Hawks, and now they get to kick back and watch these two would-be contenders do their best Keystone Kops impersonation. Miami won on Monday despite shooting 1-of-15 from long range; that's because Kyle Lowry was 2-of-11 from the floor, while DeMar DeRozan was 4-of-17. He even got benched until Lowry fouled out of the game.

These are ridiculously poor performances, the kind that aren't supposed to last. But aside from that excellent second half in Game 3, Lowry (22.1 PER, +6.8 BPM) has been all sorts of ugly since his right elbow started bothering him in late March. DeRozan (21.5 PER, +1.4 BPM) keeps shooting those long 2s, which is bad enough, but he's making even fewer of them after bending his right thumb at a nauseating angle during the opener.


Dwyane > Dwane
Then you have Raptors head coach Dwane Casey. He made the interesting choice of using Lucas Nogueira (15.6 PER, +2.6 BPM) as a back-up big in Game 4, and Nogueira was effective on defense during the first half, but it didn't last – he finished at minus-7. No sign of Jason Thompson (14.7 PER, +0.9 BPM) in this one. Hmmmm.

Miami, meanwhile, is being held together by Dwyane Wade (20.3 PER, +0.8 BPM) and chewing gum. Wade scored 30 points on Monday on 13-of-24 shooting, including the bucket that would send the game into overtime. He is to the Heat what Paul George was to the Indiana Pacers during the first round; the Raptors can't stop him, but if they contain him, they should win this series. “Should” is a bad word, though. Let's get back on the UNDER train for a very small bet until something clicks properly for either of these teams.

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Free NBA Pick: UNDER 188.5 -105
Best Line Offered: at Heritage 
Record: 37-41-1 ATS, 13-6-1 Total

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