Heat Not Equipped To Keep Up At Warriors Sunday

Saturday, February 9, 2019 12:07 PM UTC

Saturday, Feb. 9, 2019 12:07 PM UTC

The Warriors will cruise offensively hosting the Heat Sunday night, presenting value playing the total. Pick, preview, and situational trends here. 

<h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/miami-heat-vs-golden-state-warriors-3569625/odds/" target="_blank" title="Game Odds">Heat (25-28 SU, 25-26-2 ATS) at Warriors (39-15 SU, 24-29-1 ATS)</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Free NBA Pick: OVER</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4423&amp;book=BetOnline" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Sportsbook!">BetOnline</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3569625, "sportsbooksIds":[238,93,19,1096,999996], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><h2>Chalk Dusting Heat</h2><p>The Heat topped the Trail Blazers 118-108 as 6.5-point underdogs on Tuesday night, looking to carry momentum into Sacramento on Friday. The early-week victory marks the 12th win for Miami this year catching points on the NBA oddsboard, fifth most in the league. The Kings slowed their roll 102-96 as 2.5-point favorites. Miami had a cold night at the charity stripe, shooting just 47.4 percent (9-of-19) in defeat.</p><p>Behind the Mavericks, Miami is the best underdog team in NBA to back against the spread. The team is 15-8-1 ATS (65.2 percent), covering a 4.9 average line by 3.5 points per game. Most of the success is coming against Western Conference opponents, Miami topping the number in eight of 11 contests. For what it’s worth, the squad is 7-0-1 ATS catching points when coming off an effort in which it shot under 69 percent from the free-throw line.</p><p><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba" target="_blank" title="Live NBA Odds Board">The Heat are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road clashes at Golden State</a>. Points have been tough to come by in the last four visits against head coach Steve Kerr and superstar shooter Steph Curry. Since 2014, the franchise posts just 91.8 points per game on 41.5 percent shooting. The franchise has cracked the century mark once in this span.</p><p> </p><h2>Keeping Up With Curry</h2><p>Curry missed three weeks in November to a groin injury. The Warriors went 5-6 SU and 3-8 ATS in his absence, compiling a -1.2 average margin of victory. The offense struggled mightly in his absence, slumping to 110.0 points per game. Since returning on December 1, Golden State posts 121.1 per night. Their average point differential is 9.8 in this stretch.</p><p>Bettors have to scrutinize whether the Heat can keep up with Curry and Co. at Oracle Arena. Miami, at 105.5 points per game, is the third lowest scoring team in the NBA. In the last calendar year, with Curry in the lineup, the Warriors are 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS hosting teams averaging less than 108.0 points. Golden State’s average margin of victory is 21.8 points, topping a -13.4 average line by 8.4 points per game.</p><p>Bettors also have to gauge whether Miami will be eager to board a plane for a back-to-back at Denver Monday night. Defense could be an issue. Since 2017, the “over” is a perfect 7-0 when Curry and Durant host a team with a contest the next night. The margins are off the charts, an average 251.3 points soaring 24.6 points past a 226.6 total. No contest has gone into overtime either. The Warriors have surpassed their projected team total in each.</p><p> </p><h2>Sharp Pick</h2><p>With Durant and Curry healthy, the Warriors have scored 115 points or more in 14 of 21 contests at home, averaging 120.8 overall. Since LeBron James left in 2014, the Heat are 5-40 SU (11.1 percent) and 9-35-1 ATS (20.8 percent) when allowing 115 points or more in a contest. <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/" target="_blank" title="More NBA Picks">The “over” has cashed in 88.9 percent</a> (40). In 2018, they are 2-8 ATS with the total going north of the total in all but one. Curry and crew march to 120 points in this one, while the Heat hurry to the airport.</p>
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