Heat vs. 76ers Game 3 NBA Picks: Will Embiid’s Return Fuel Philly?

The Philadelphia 76ers struggled to compete in the first two games of the series. Will the 76ers get back on track tonight with Joel Embiid in the lineup, or will the Miami Heat push them to the brink? Keep reading with our Heat-76ers picks.

The Miami Heat travel to Wells Fargo Center looking to win a third straight against the Philadelphia 76ers after two comfortable wins at home.

Game 1 was competitive for a half. But in Game 2, the 76ers lost every quarter and never looked like a threat to win. Philly cut the lead to as few as eight points in the third quarter and fourth quarter, but that one was all Miami. 

Joel Embiid was ruled out of this one early, but reports from this morning indicate that he’ll give it a go after he participated in the morning shootaround, cleared concussion protocols, and got fitted for a face mask.

Here are my picks and predictions for Friday’s NBA matchup between the Heat and 76ers (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Heat vs. 76ers Game Info

Date/Time: Friday, May 6, 7 p.m. ETTV: ESPNLocation: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA

Heat vs. 76ers Odds Analysis

The Heat opened as 1-point favorites with Embiid’s status still up in the air, but that line shifted up to as much as 3.5 on some books after he was ruled out. The line quickly shifted again after the latest Embiid news broke, and the Heat are back at 1-point favorites.

The total is the highest it's been in the entire series after closing at 208.5 in Game 1 and 207.5 in Game 2. The Game 2 total was an overreaction to the dreadful shooting from the opening contest, and it still feels a bit low tonight at 210. With Embiid back in the starting lineup, Philly’s offense should run a bit more smoothly.

Heat vs. 76ers Picks

76ers ML (+100) ?????Over 210.5 (-110) ?????Jimmy Butler triple-double (+900) ?????

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Heat vs. 76ers Predictions

76ers (+100)

With the Heat only favored by a single point and Embiid and the Sixers playing for their playoff lives, I’ve got to give the edge to Philly here. Ultimately, I think Miami prevails in the series, but Embiid playing through two major injuries and returning when his team needs him the most should give the 76ers a much-needed emotional charge in front of the home crowd.

The Heat won the first two games by a combined 30 points, and Miami is 5-1 with an average margin of victory of 15.6 points with Butler in the lineup this postseason. Bam Adebayo has feasted with 23.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2 combined blocks/steals per game while shooting a ridiculous 71.4% from the field. He’s abused DeAndre Jordan and Paul Reed, but he won’t be able to bully Embiid.

Tyrese Maxey has averaged 26.5 points, and Tobias Harris has averaged 24 in the series, doing their best to keep the team’s playoff chances afloat while James Harden has struggled. Philly has been thoroughly outmatched in each of the last two games, but I can’t see that happening again in Game 3. Embiid is the heart and soul of this team, and I would be shocked if Philly was blown out here.

Over 210.5 (-110)

Philly shot a combined 14-of-64 from beyond the arc in Games 1 and 2, but the 76ers are third-best in the playoffs in 2-point percentage at a healthy 55.7%. Philly still put up 103 points in Game 2 despite the continued struggles from deep. The return of Embiid should significantly help the team space the floor more effectively, so I’m expecting an improvement in 3-point shooting.

The Heat hit 14-of-29 3-pointers (48.3%) in Game 2 and scored 119 behind the strong play of Adebayo, Butler, Tyler Herro, and Victor Oladipo. With so many capable scorers on the roster, we can expect Miami to have another quality offensive showing. 

These teams combined for 222 points in Game 2, and the total is far too low heading into Game 3. The 76ers are 4-5 against the Over as the home underdog but 21-13 after a loss. Miami is 14-11 to the Over as the away favorite. I’m hammering the Over on Game 3 as Butler and Embiid duke it out in a pivotal contest.

Butler triple-double (+900)

Jimmy Butler averaged 30.5 points on 20.3 field-goal attempts per game in the first round but just 18.5 points on 15.5 attempts against the 76ers. The Heat have coasted past the 76ers, and Butler hasn’t had a huge game yet. That’s about to change in Game 3 with Embiid back in the lineup for Philly.

Since arriving in South Beach, Jimmy Buckets has played in six Game 3’s in the playoffs and averaged a healthy 25.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 6.7 assists. Most recently, he went for 20/10/8 against the Hawks in Game 3 of the first round.

Butler is the Heat’s franchise leader in triple-doubles after passing LeBron James this season, and he’s been known to step up in the biggest moments. No moment is bigger for him in this year’s playoffs. I’m expecting Butler to go off in this game after he took it easy in Games 1 and 2.

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Heat-76ers picks made 5/6/2022 at 1:50 p.m. ET