One of the nicest NBA odds just released for tonight is between the Hawks and the Wizards in DC, where Washington is a -4 ½ favorite, with a total of 199.
The key for this game in in my opinion is the battle in the post. The Wizards will likely be without their starting power forward, Nene, which will leave Marcin Gortat and a platoon of power forwards to get the job done against the Hawks. Al Horford has started the year off a little slow, but in his last four games he’s picked it up shooting 60% or better from the floor, and is averaging 15 points per game in those last four.
Speaking of guys who have broken out this season, Paul Millsap is reaping the benefits of playing next to an offensive minded center. With Horford taking up space and a credible defender, it’s left Millsap to several mismatches this season, and he is taking advantage. No matter who is trying to defend Millsap tonight, I see the Hawks’ power forward having a big game. He is filling up the state sheet, and with the extension of his shot out to the three-point line, (where he started slow but it shooting a respectable 35% from) he is one of the tougher covers for bigger, more post oriented power forwards.
The Sharp Pick
Even with Nene out, the Wizards’ offense shouldn’t take too much of a hit. Nene is close to the last option offensively in this starting five, especially with Bradley Beal back. However if the Hawks are dominating the frontcourt battle, I see the Wizards dominating the backcourt. Kyle Korver is a much-improved defender this season. Ever since playing that stint with the Bulls, he has gone from having no defense, to having a very respectable defense. He is even averaging 0.7 blocks per game, which ranks him tied for third in the NBA amongst guards. However that being said, Beal is going to eat his lunch in this game. John Wall will likely do more of the same to Jeff Teague, and with all of this going on, an NBA pick on the total sits at the 200 points mark.
The over looks like a great play tonight between two teams who have top ten scoring potential. The over is 7-3 in the Wizards last ten games as home favorites, and it’s 4-1 in their last five games as favorites overall. For the Hawks, the over is 5-2 in their last seven games as a road underdog between +1/2 and +5. There are already some sportsbooks that are raising their NBA Odds for this total to 200 or more, so don’t miss your chance to get in on the early odds value of 199 ½. Three out of the last four times these two teams have played the total has gone over, and six of their last eight meetings dating back two seasons have gone over the total. I see a final score of about 107-100.
Free NBA Pick: OVER 200 ½ at BookMaker