Those interested in NBA picks tonight will likely focus on one of the marquee games, as two number one seeds battle it out. The Hawks head into Golden State as a +6 underdog in the NBA Odds, with a total of 209.
Shooting Guard Calamities
A few days ago it looked as if both teams were going to come into this game at full strength, and it looked like an epic showdown. However while its still going to be a great and possibly epic game, both teams will be down their best shooters tonight. Kyle Korver is set to miss the rest of this road trip for the Hawks after breaking his nose, and the Warriors are going to be without Klay Thompson for the next 7-10 days after he suffered an ankle injury. Kent Bazemore has been playing exceptionally well for the Hawks in Korver’s absence, and I expect him and Dennis Schroder to see the biggest bump in minutes against this team tonight. For the Warriors it’s a bit more complex. Steve Kerr has hinted that he may start Justin Holiday, the lesser-known older brother of New Orleans point guard, Jrue Holiday.
The older Holiday sibling has been a nice story this season. He worked his way around the league for the first few years of his career, and after a great performance this past summer in the NBA Summer League roster, he made his way onto the Dubs roster, and now, into their rotation.
So even with the two light out shooters missing, there will still be a great game played here, because both clubs have very capable scorers to fill their shoes. However will that have an affect on the outcome of this game?
The Sharp Pick
While the NBA Odds spread for this game seems to be stuck around -6 to -6 ½, there are some discrepancies in the total. After opening at 210 ½, there are some books that have pretty much kept the line the same as when it opened, and there are other sportsbooks who have the total all the way down to 208 ½.
This is an indication to me that there could be value NBA picks left in the sportsbooks who have the line at 210 still. These two teams are both really god defensively, and while the Hawks haven’t exactly shown it recently, against one another in this big game should bring out the defense.
The under is 13-5 for the Warriors in their last 18 games overall, and the under is 4-1 in their last five games against winning teams. On top of that, the under is 12-4 in the Dubs last 16 games as favorites, and 5-2 in their last seven games as home favorites.
The Hawks have cashed the under in ten of their last 14 games overall, and while they have been cashing the over recently as road underdogs, they have cashed the under in four of their last five games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better.
Look for this one to be up and down to start, but by the fourth quarter both teams should lock in defensively. I see a final score of about 106-102, so take the under at 210.
NBA Pick: UNDER 208.5 at Pinnacle