Hawks vs. Heat Game 2 NBA Picks: Can Young Cool Down Miami?

After a poor showing in the Game 1 blowout loss, can Trae Young bounce back and lead the Hawks to victory Tuesday? Here are our Hawks-Heat picks for Game 2.

After winning its way into the playoffs with two straight play-in victories, Atlanta got cut down to size quickly in the first game of its series with Miami. The Hawks were trounced 115-91, the same score they lost by when these teams met on Jan. 12.

Trae Young had his worst shooting performance (1-of-12) and lowest scoring total (eight points) of the season, while Duncan Robinson matched his season high with 27 points and eight triples.

Atlanta lost the season series 3-1, but three of the four games were decided by six points or less, so the Game 1 blowout isn’t necessarily an indication of things to come. If Atlanta wants to make this a competitive series, it will be decided by Young’s response to his Game 1 stinker.

Here are my picks and predictions for Tuesday’s NBA matchup between the Hawks and Heat (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Hawks vs. Heat Game Info

Date: Tuesday, April 19, 7:30 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: FTX Arena, Miami, FL

Hawks vs. Heat Odds Analysis

The line has fluctuated from Heat -7 to -8, and the spread is likely to remain in that range until tip-off. The 24-point Game 1 blowout has inflated Miami’s odds, but, as mentioned above, these teams played each other competitively in three of four regular-season matchups.

The Over/Under opened as low as 216.5 on some sportsbooks, but it’s risen steadily to 219. It’s not a surprising line considering these teams combined for fewer than 219 points in three of five matchups.

Hawks vs. Heat Picks

Hawks +7.5 (-110) ?????Over 219 (-110) ????Trae Young Over 29.5 points (+168) ?????

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Hawks vs. Heat Predictions

Hawks +7.5 (-110)

The Hawks covered in only one of five matchups with Miami this season, but they had a 20-19-0 record following a loss. Atlanta went just 6-19-0 against the spread as the road underdog this season, but the Hawks have covered in nine of the last 12. Conversely, Miami is 18-19-0 as the home favorite this season and 28-25-0 after a win. The Heat have covered in seven of the last eight. 

The trends favor the Heat to cover again, but we can’t go exclusively off of trends. Game 1 was John Collins’ first game back in the lineup in five weeks, and he played just 21 minutes off the bench. He should take on a larger role in Game 2. Kevin Huerter, Onyeka Okongwu, and Bogdan Bogdanovic had poor offensive showings, and Young had his worst scoring performance of the season. 

On the other side of the court, Duncan Robinson put up 27 points - just the seventh time all season he scored 25 or more. A repeat performance of his Game 1 outburst isn’t likely to be replicated tonight.

So much went wrong for Atlanta, and Robinson had a season-best showing in Game 1. Some regression to the mean for both sides should make this one much more competitive.

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Over 219 (-110)

The Hawks and Heat hit the Under in three of five meetings this season. Atlanta is 10-15-0 as the road underdog and has hit the Under in seven of the last eight games. Miami is 19-17-1 as the home favorite and has hit the Over in four of the last six. Once again, we’re looking beyond the trends.

As mentioned above, this was a dreadful offensive showing for several of the Hawks’ key players. Young, Bogdanovic, Okongwu, Huerter, and Collins combined to score 35 points on a pedestrian 9-of-37 shooting.

Miami has a strong defense, but the Hawks’ primary scorers shouldn't fall that flat for a second consecutive game. We’re taking the Over with the expectation that Trae and Co. bounce back in a major way.

Young Over 29.5 points (+168)

There’s hope that Young can bounce back, and season stats back that up. Young’s five lowest-scoring games of the regular season were totals of 9, 13, 14, 14, and 14. In five games following those contests, he averaged 31.2 points and 2.4 triples. 

Young is apparently in a good mental state following his dud. When asked about Monday’s rest day, he said: "I think yesterday was good for us. I think having a wake-up call in that first game, with what they're able to bring, the energy, we've got to match that."

Young was the breakout star of last season’s playoffs when he scored at least 30 points in eight of the Hawks’ 16 games and led Atlanta to the Eastern Conference Finals. He’s got a history of coming through in big spots and stepping up when the lights are brightest, so we’re taking the plus-money odds on that happening tonight. His Over/Under is set at 26.5, but taking the Over gives odds of only -106. I think he can get at least three more points, so I’m making the profitable decision to wager on this 30-point prop.

Where to Bet on Hawks-Heat Picks

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Hawks-Heat picks made 4/19/2022 at 12:39 p.m. ET.