Grizzlies vs. Spurs NBA Picks: Lock Spurs -8 & 'Over' to Bounce Back

Darin Zank

Saturday, November 21, 2015 5:09 PM GMT

Saturday, Nov. 21, 2015 5:09 PM GMT

San Antonio turned in a stinky performance Friday night, losing outright as big favorites on the NBA odds against New Orleans. But this handicapper expects the Spurs to bounce back.

NBA Betting Odds
Most of Saturday's NBA odds market opened this game with San Antonio favored by 7.5 points, the total offered at right around 191. In the early betting the spread was holding steady, while the total dropped to 190.

Those who think Memphis might win this game outright could get a price of +281 on the NBA moneyline at 5Dimes.

 

The Situation
San Antonio (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS), inexplicably, had its six-game winning streak snapped Friday night when it lost to injury-depleted New Orleans 104-90, going down outright as a nine-point dog, making a complete mess of this handicapper's free NBA pick on that game. The Spurs trailed throughout, pulled to within a point early in the fourth quarter, but then allowed the Pelicans to go on a 17-6 run and never recovered.

On the night San Antonio shot just 41 percent from the floor, while allowing New Orleans to shoot 46 percent.

Prior to that the Spurs had six in a row, five of those by double-figures.

Memphis (7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS) has won four games in a row, after beating Houston Friday night 96-84. The Grizz led by 20 in the third quarter, allowed the Rockets to rally back within nine points early in the fourth, but pushed the lead back to 16 and cruised home from there.

On the night Memphis only shot 42 percent from the field, but held Houston to just 38 percent shooting and won the turnover battle 23-11.

So Memphis is 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS since adding G Mario Chalmers to the mix in that trade with Miami.

 

Recent History
San Antonio has taken nine of the last 11 meetings with Memphis, going back to a Western Conference playoff series two seasons ago, but the Grizzlies split four games with the Spurs last season, including the two games in San Antonio.

Both teams shot a combined 46 percent from the floor over last season's four meetings.

Also, the totals split 2-2 on last season's series, but those games – without the three overtimes in one of Memphis' victories - averaged only 192 points.

 

Totals Trends
Memphis is 8-5 on the UNDERS this season, as Grizz games have averaged 196 points.

San Antonio is 7-4 on the UNDERS, as Spurs games have averaged 193 points.

 

Injury Update
San Antonio F LaMarcus Aldridge turned an ankle Friday night, as is questionable for Saturday, as is Manu Ginobili, who's dealing with a sore hip. Over on the other bench Memphis F Zach Randolph missed Friday's game with a sore knee, and is also questionable.

 

Final Analysis
San Antonio stunk up the joint in New Orleans Friday night, but hopefully that just sets the Spurs up for a bounce-back performance Saturday night; so far this season they're 2-0 both SU and ATS following outright losses. Also, we're expecting San Antonio to shoot a little better than it did Friday night, so we're thinking OVER as the NBA picks.

NBA Picks: Spurs -8 & OVER 190 at Heritage

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