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Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets plays the Los Angeles Clippers in the fourth quarter.
Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets plays the Los Angeles Clippers in the fourth quarter. Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images/AFP.

The top two teams in the West clash in an epic, mile-high showdown, and Denver will look to assert its dominance at home. Read on for our Grizzlies-Nuggets NBA picks based on the best NBA odds.

The Association is in the home stretch of the season, and the top teams in each conference are vying for position. The Memphis Grizzlies sit five games behind the top-seeded Denver Nuggets, and they’ll look to close the gap with a second straight win against Denver. 

Here is our best Grizzlies-Nuggets NBA pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Grizzlies vs. Nuggets pick

Nuggets -5 (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Nuggets have won and covered in six of their last seven games, with their only loss coming against - you guessed it - Memphis. The Grizzlies took down the Nuggets at FedEx Forum on Feb. 25, but Denver is in prime position to exact its revenge at home.

The Nuggets sit atop the Western Conference standings at 44-19, and Memphis is five games back at No. 2 with a 38-23 record. Each team plays its best basketball at home, and Memphis’ road record is a lowly 12-18. That includes a 3-12 record on the road against teams .500 or better. The last such win came on Dec. 23 against a Suns team missing Devin Booker.

Meanwhile, Denver is 22-1 over its last 23 home games, with the lone loss coming on Jan. 22 when Nikola Jokic was sidelined. The Nuggets don't lose at home very often, and they're 28-4 at Ball Arena. We expect them to win, but can they cover?

Both teams will likely be at full health, but the edge clearly goes to the home team. Denver is a whopping +378 at home this season, 49 points higher than the next squad, which happens to be Memphis. The Grizzlies are +329 at home but -67 on the road, and 14 of the team’s 23 losses have come by at least five points as visitors.

There’s not a lot to read into with this matchup. So take Denver and the points, and never look back.

Check out our Grizzlies-Nuggets player prop picks.

Grizzlies vs. Nuggets best odds

DraftKings (-105)

Nuggets -5Nuggets -5Nuggets -4.5Nuggets -5Nuggets -5

The spread odds aren’t too varied for today’s best bet, but we’ll make sure to avoid BetMGM and its 4.5 points that come with shorter odds than our other top books at -115.

DraftKings and WynnBet offer the longest odds at -105, while FanDuel comes in just behind at -106. I liked this line when it opened at -5.5, so I’ll take the dip and bet it enthusiastically at -5.

Grizzlies vs. Nuggets odds

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Grizzlies vs. Nuggets odds analysis

Denver opened as a 5.5-point favorite, and that line has been fluctuating between a point and half a point. The season series is tied 1-1, and each team covered and earned a double-digit point win during the respective victories. The home team won both prior matchups, so it’s no surprise that 67% of wagers have been placed on the Nuggets to cover. 

The point total has risen two points from 232.5 at opening to the current 234.5. It’s curious movement, considering these teams comfortably hit the Under in both prior season matchups. Denver is 2-3 to the Over in its last five, while Memphis is just 1-4.

Despite the recent results and matchup history, bettors are showing repeatedly they hate taking the Under. That's why 62% of wagers have come in on that outcome.

Grizzlies vs. Nuggets game info

  • Date: Friday, March 3, 10:00 p.m. ET
  • TV: TNT
  • Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Grizzlies-Nuggets pick made 3/3/2023 at 10:50 a.m. ET.

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