Grizzlies/Pistons Odds Total: Squares on 'Under,' Sharp Pick is 'Over'

Charles Stark

Tuesday, March 17, 2015 11:35 AM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 17, 2015 11:35 AM UTC

Place your NBA picks with care, as conflicting styles collide on Tuesday with the Memphis Grizzlies facing the struggling Detroit Pistons. We focus on the NBA odds total for the best value.

Just Win Baby!
This is something Detroit has not done consistently since the break.  They are 0 for their last 10 and simply have not been playing well.  I have mentioned in previous articles how much I disliked the trade they made for Jackson, real bad move.  They weren’t broke and didn’t need fixing.  They have not shot the ball well since the break shooting 41.6% from the field and 28.6% from beyond the arc.  Contrarily the Grizzlies have been a machine in that same time frame shooting 45% from the field and over 30% beyond the arc.  They simply keep chugging along and are 6-4 in their last 10 games.  Against Detroit I think they are going to have a solid day from the field (more on that later), but the main reason I am taking the OVER in this game is I feel this game will have a great up tempo pace.


Keeping Up with the Pistonians
As I wrote this mid article headline I started to already feel pretty bad about myself, just forgive me this once.  Detroit loves to push the pace of their games, especially at home, they simply need the ball to fall a little more for them.  In the last three games they are second in the league in field goals attempted at almost 92 shots a game.  For the year, again at home, they are seventh ranked in the league at almost 86 attempts per game.  Stan Van Gundy has a nice idea how to space the floor and get open shots.  Especially with NBA odds flagging Detroit as the +4.5 underdog getting back home I think they will have more success scoring (100 points average at home compared to 96 on the road), and should get Memphis into their flow.  This will be fine by Memphis in my opinion, when faced with similar up tempo teams the Grizzlies will get out and run with the best of them.  On the year they have had game totals over 200 versus the likes of teams similar in tempo to Detroit in Houston, Phoenix, New Orleans, and Orlando.

Check out our free NBA pick for Hornets vs. Clippers, too.

No “D” No Problem
In the last three games Detroit is allowing over 52% shooting from the floor and over 43% from beyond the arc.  As noted, they like to push tempo but wow they are not doing anything on the defensive end, Memphis has enough weapons that they should put up quite a bit of points.  For the year the Pistons are sixth worst in opponent shooting percentage allowed.  Memphis is always pretty sound defensively, they know their rotations and are good on the ball, but on the road they are not as intense.  On the road the Grizzlies are ninth worst ranked in opponent shooting percentage allowed.  One good note for both the Pistons and the Grizzlies is how well they take care of the ball.  Memphis and Detroit are ranked 6th and 8th respectively in turnovers.  I am looking for them to be efficient with the ball and take a lot of good shots in this matchup, which as I said, puts us on taking the OVER.

With the recent slide and low shooting percentage by the Pistons, combined with the tough overall defense of Memphis, I can see why a lot of people would like the under on this game.  But digging deeper into disparities in play at home and away with the projected pace of the game I will be taking the OVER.  I suggest you add this NBA pick to your own card.

NBA Pick: Memphis/Detroit OVER 189.5 at BetOnline

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