Grizz Clip the Clippers With More Griffin: NBA Betting

free picks

Jason Lake

Tuesday, January 2, 2018 1:06 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 2, 2018 1:06 PM UTC

The Los Angeles Clippers couldn’t beat the Memphis Grizzlies or the NBA odds heading into the holidays. Can they do it Tuesday night now that Blake Griffin is back?

Free Pick: Clippers –5
Best Line: (-102) at Pinnacle

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The Los Angeles Clippers (16-19 SU, 19-15-1 ATS) are the most interesting team in basketball right now. They’ve dealt with some major injury problems this year, but now that Blake Griffin is back in the lineup, Los Angeles has the talent and the opportunity to make a serious playoff push. They might even be a valuable NBA pick at this point.

Here’s the problem: We knew they were a strong follow candidate while Griffin was injured. The Clippers made us look good by going 6-8 SU and 9-4-1 ATS while their highest-profile player recovered from his sprained left MCL. Are they still worth the investment as 6-point favorites this Tuesday when they host the Memphis Grizzlies (12-25 SU, 13-22-2 ATS), tipping off at 10:30 p.m. Eastern on NBA-TV?

The Big Three?
Maybe the hoop nerds at FiveThirtyEight can help us out. They’ve got L.A. winning Tuesday’s game 75 percent of the time, for a CARMELO-based spread of –7. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index only has the Clippers at 69.1 percent, or very close to –6 according to Wizard of Odds. But those projections are anchored in how well Los Angeles has performed over the course of the season. They’ve only played four games with Griffin (plus-2.8 BPM), DeAndre Jordan (plus-1.5 BPM) and Milos Teodosic (minus-2.6 BPM) in the lineup at the same time. The Clippers are 4-0 SU and ATS in those games.

Memphis, on the other hand, is 5-19 SU and 7-15-2 ATS since Mike Conley (minus-1.8 BPM) was taken out of the lineup with a sore left Achilles. When healthy, Conley plays at an All-Star level for the Grizz; Tyreke Evans (plus-4.9 BPM) has resurrected his career in Conley’s absence, but Mario Chalmers (minus-2.6 BPM) and Andrew Harrison (minus-2.7 BPM) aren’t giving Evans much help in the backcourt.

Making matters worse, Chandler Parsons (minus-0.1 BPM) has missed two games with a sore right knee, and could miss Tuesday’s game as well. Parsons was in the starting lineup for Memphis on December 23 when they beat the Clippers 115-112 as 3-point home faves on the NBA odds board. Taking him out means more time for JaMychal Green (minus-2.7 BPM). Griffin may be an overvalued commodity for the Clippers, but we’ll recommend them for a small wager given the circumstances, and may the sphere be with you.

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