Great Home Record Make Mavericks Our NBA Pick Over Thunder

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, February 24, 2016 5:26 PM GMT

The Thunder and Mavs hook up tonight from Dallas in what should be one of the better games of the night, and the NBA Odds makers recognize this, as they have OKC as -5½ road favorites.

Thunder Struggling?
A few weeks ago, Oklahoma City looked like the third team in the Western Conference that has a shot to get to the NBA Finals. They are athletic, their offense is second to almost no one, and they have two of the top five players in the NBA right now. However, right before, and now carrying over to after the All Star Break, the Thunder have bee stagnant, and it could carry over tonight in their game against the Mavericks.

OKC is only 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games sandwiching the break, which is close to an automatic fade. On top of that, they have lost their first two games off the break to the Pacers and Cavaliers, and now they face an undervalued Mavs team tonight that has been very good covering spreads at home this season.

The Thunder on the other hand have been a complete and automatic fade when it comes to playing on the road recently, and I think that continues tonight with a Mavs cover and possible victory. The Thunder are only 1-9 against the NBA odds in their last 10 road games, and with their road defense playing worse than almost any team in the league, it would not surprise me to see the Mavs hang around in this one, or even get the win outright.

 

The Sharp Pick
The Thunder are now only 5-10 ATS on the road in conference games this season, while the Mavs have been the opposite at home, cashing at 11-5 ATS this season when playing at home against the Western Conference. While the Thunder have had some successes against the Mavs in the recent past, they have not been as successful in their recent battles with Dallas in the Lone Star state. Dallas is 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with OKC in Dallas, and if that trend continues tonight, the Mavs are a steal of a value at +4 ½, especially if you take into consideration how the Thunder have been playing recently.

In their last ten games, the Thunder have given up nearly 110 points per game, and it hasn’t been much better recently in their last five games either. After giving up 115 points to the Cavaliers two nights ago, the Thunder have now given up nearly 107 points per game in their last five games, and they are 2-3 SU and ATS during that stretch.

If the Thunder can’t slow down Dallas’ offense tonight, it’s going to be very tough for them to get the cover as -5½ road favorites. The Thunder have been awful this season as road favorites, cashing at only 6-13 ATS this season when they are favored away from home. The Mavs on the other hand have not only been great at home this season overall, they are 5-3 ATS this season when playing as a home underdog. Take the points with the home team tonight, and add it to your NBA Picks.

 

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NBA Pick: Mavs +6
Best Line Offered: at Bovada