Grab 'Under' 210 Our Marquee NBA Pick For Spurs & Warriors Clash

Charles Stark

Monday, January 25, 2016 1:03 PM UTC

Monday, Jan. 25, 2016 1:03 PM UTC

The matchup that everybody has been waiting for happens tonight when Golden State hosts the San Antonio Spurs. With Tim Duncan being out make our NBA pick more interesting.

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NBA Pick: Under 210
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


Spurs vs. Warriors
NBA Odds makers have come out with the total for this game at 209 and Golden State favorite by 5. With San Antonio being the best defensive team in the league and Golden State being very tough statistically on the defensive side I think this number is a bit too high. The last five times we have been on a Golden State game we have been right, and I'm going to try and make it six in a row by backing under the total for my selection.


San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is averaging 104.2 points per game while shooting 49.1% from the field, and allowing 89.8 points per game on 42.6% shooting from the field. On the season San Antonio is 20-23-1 on their over under totals overall and 8-11-1 on the road. It's too bad that Tim Duncan will not play tonight, but something that also needs to be mentioned is that LaMarcus Aldridge may not be 100% having some back trouble recently. Offensively they're one of the best teams in the league and rank second in both shooting efficiency and effective field-goal percentage. They also rank first in the league in overall shooting percentage and two point shooting percentage, as well as second in the league shooting 38.5% from beyond the arc. They are very efficient but they don't push tempo too much averaging just 83.2 field-goal attempts per game which ranks 20th in the league, and tonight I anticipate them to control tempo as much as possible. Defensively they are the best team in the league and rank first in opponent points per game, field goals made per game, and opponent effective field-goal percentage. They also rank in the top five in every important defensive category including opponent overall shooting percentage, three point shooting percentage, and two point shooting percentage. Tonight they will have their hands full with the best offensive team in the league, but I like for San Antonio to try and control this game from the onset and keep us below the number.


Golden State Warriors
Golden State is averaging 114.7 points per game while shooting 48.6% from the field, and allowing 102.6 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field. They have been an over the total team for most of the season going 27-17 on their over under totals overall, but only 10-10 at home. Probably the most surprising thing about this number is that Golden State has only gone under 210 points three times since Christmas and not once in their last nine games.  Now that we are through the midway point of the year I believe odds makers have started setting lines more accurately, and more importantly I believe the public will be on the over in this spot which I like to fade. Offensively they are the best team in the league and rank first in shooting efficiency and effective field-goal percentage. I could go on and on about how good they are offensively but I will just keep it simple, they are the best offensive team in the league. Defensively they do allow teams to run up-tempo with them but statistically they are extremely good ranking third in opponent shooting percentage, and ranking first in opponent three point shooting percentage. The only area they don't defend very well is in the paint where they allow opponents 46.1 points per game which ranks second to last in the NBA. However, this is not been an issue as far as wins and losses go for the Warriors.

With these two elite teams meeting for the first time this season I anticipate for both teams to play some solid defense. Also the number, being under 210 set by odds makers, surprises me a bit considering Golden State has not gone under that number last nine games. For one of your NBA picks I recommend going against the trend and backing the under in what should be a fantastic basketball game.


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