Grab The 'Over' As Your NBA Pick On Sunday's Mavericks vs. Nuggets Game

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, March 6, 2016 4:59 PM UTC

Sunday, Mar. 6, 2016 4:59 PM UTC

Right now the NBA Odds have the Nuggets as 210.5 totals underdogs. Can Dallas continue their dominance against the Nuggets, or will Denver finally get one against Dallas?

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets
The Mavericks are coming into this game after having two full days off, and in games where Dallas has enjoyed some extended time off this season, they have been below average against the NBA odds boards. Dallas is only 4-6 ATS wen coming into a game off of 2-3 days rest, but when it comes to the total, they have been a lot more predictive. Dallas is 7-3 this season cashing the over when coming into a game on 2-3 days rest, and if that trend holds true tonight, the over is going to be a great play for your picks on Sunday evening.

These two teams got into a very high scoring game just over a week ago that went into overtime and finished with a final score of 122-116. However, the total would have gone over even if the game had not gone into overtime, and after the pace of that game ended at only 92.3, the Offensive Ratings for both teams were through the roof at 113.8 and 119.7 for the Mavs.

If these two teams can have the same kind of offensive success against one another in this one, the total is going to sky over once again. Considering how well both teams have been cashing the over recently, I am taking it here this evening before the sharps get ahold of it and start the process of raising the total up more than it already is.


The Sharp Pick
The Nuggets are no strangers to playing as home underdogs, and while the injury to Danilo Gallinari will hurt some of their offensive production, the Nuggets are 12-8-2 this season cashing the over as home dogs. Denver has also been very good at cashing the over against conference teams this season. Denver is 23-16-1 cashing the over against the West this year, and they have been even better at home overall this season. Denver is the second best team at cashing the over at home this season behind only the Pelicans at 20-9-2, which is good for a success rate of 69 percent for over tickets on the Nuggets when they play in their own building.

Denver comes into this one cashing the over in three of their last four games, and a big reason for that has been their defense. Denver is giving up more than 113 points per game in their last four games, and the Mavs haven’t been much better. While Dallas has cooled off some from their recent run of offense, the Mavs are still scoring an average of 117 points per game in their last six games, and they have scored at least 121 points in four of their last six games. With the Nuggets giving up almost 107 points per game when playing at home at the Pepsi Center this season, this game should be a pretty high scoring one. Take the over and add it to your NBA picks.

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Free NBA Pick: Over 209.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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