Grab Home Favorite Clippers -10 As Your NBA Pick vs. Knicks

Mark Lathrop

Friday, March 11, 2016 5:22 PM GMT

Our NBA handicapper analyzes this lopsided matchup in Los Angeles. Do the Knicks have a chance of reversing series trends? Get Our NBA picks here. 

New York Knicks vs. L.A. Clippers
As the Los Angeles Clippers (41-22) look to wrap up a playoff spot in the coming weeks, they should take one step closer to that goal as they host the flailing New York Knicks (27-39). The Knicks are in the middle of a six-game road trip, with games against these Clippers, Golden State Warriors, and Washington Wizards still to come. Those games will feature the Knicks as heavy underdogs, just like this one where New York has been placed as a 10-point underdog over at Bovada. The O/U total in this game opened at 203.5 across the board. This game can be seen nationally from the Staples Center on NBA TV.

The Knicks are coming off of a win in which they actually ran into a team that was worse than them, the Phoenix Suns. New York won that game handily, crushing the suns 128-97 as a 1.5-point underdog. The Knicks were hot from the floor in that game, to be expected when scoring 128 points, and hit at a rate of 56.1% from field goal range. They also were hot behind the arc, making 16 3-pointers in 24 attempts, good for a 66.7% rate. This shooting night far exceeded the Knicks road average of 44.0% per game from the floor, and 35.9% from behind the arc.

In comparison, when these teams played in New York in late January the Knicks couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn. The Knicks lost that game 116-88 as a 2.5-point home underdog. The Clippers kept them well under their season shooting average as well, as the Knicks shot just 38.8% from the floor and 22.2% from 3-point range.

The Clippers are coming off of a 120-108 road loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, losing ATS as a 6-point underdog. It was the worst defensive performance by the Clippers in months, but that is expected when you are facing the 2nd best offense in the league in the Thunder. They’ve held 12 of their last 18 opponents to 95 or fewer points, which is lowering their season average of allowing 100.5 points per game overall. This is all happening without the services of Blake Griffin, who is still out with an injured hand from punching a guy.

 

Betting Analysis
The Clippers have owned this series in recent years, and have not won by less than 20 points in each of the last three meetings. The Knicks have not scored above 88 points in any of those games, which doesn’t bode well coming into a bounce-back spot for the Clippers after they had been playing great defense for months.

The Knicks area also dealing with an injury to starting shooting guard, Arron Afflalo, who missed the game against the Phoenix Suns. Sasha Vujacic took his place in that game and scored nearly a career best in racking up 23 points and going 6 for 7 from 3-point range. That rate is unsustainable of course, so it is likely that missing Afflalo in this game will have a negative effect on New York’s chances of keeping up with the Clippers.

New York has been a little undervalued this year on the road, going 19-13 against the NBA odds. However, they are going up against a very good home team in the Clippers, who are 21-11 SU. With Afflalo out, look for this matchup to stay unbalanced in favor of Los Angeles. Shop around for a line, and take the Los Angeles Clippers -9.5 points at Pinnacle as one of your NBA Picks

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NBA Pick: L.A. Clippers -10
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline