Golden State Warriors vs. Philadelphia76ers Total Betting Odds Set Too High?

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, November 18, 2017 5:17 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 18, 2017 5:17 PM UTC

Easily the most intriguing non-conference matchup of the evening takes place in Philadelphia tonight, as the Warriors come to town as -8 ½ favorites in the NBA Odds. Can the Sixers cover this one, or should we focus more on the total of 230 ½ points?

Free NBA Pick: UNDER 231 
Best Odds Available at Bovada

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Warriors vs. 76ers

In what should easily be the highest scoring game of the night, the sportsbooks have jacked up this total for what could be a very fast-paced matchup. The spread is also the second highest of the evening, so you know at least Golden State will be scoring some points.

In their first game a week ago in Oakland, the Warriors pretty easily dismantled the Sixers, but playing in Philadelphia may throw them off a bit. Even coming off that loss to the Celtics, the Warriors are just 4-3 ATS on the road this season, so laying a large spread on them on the road is not something I’m that in to tonight.

However, the total of 230 ½ is huge for a reason, but at this point in the season when defenses start to settle in, this number might be too large. Teams seem to see their scoring go down in the second meeting of the season, and I think that’s what will happen here tonight with the Warriors going in to Philly.

Golden State is averaging just 111 points per game over their last five, and in those same five games they have given up only 97.4 points per game. Golden State’s defense was one of the best in the league last season, and after a slow start, they now rank seventh-best in the league with a defensive efficiency of 104.7 points allowed per 100 possessions.

If the Sixers can’t get above 105 points tonight, I’m concerned that Golden State might not even crack 120 and we have an under play on our hands. The Sixers also rank in the top half of the league in defensive rating, and both teams are holding their opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 49.4% or lower. Thus, my free NBA picks today include this game to go UNDER the posted total.

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